Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 26

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.1	3.9
	2	3.2	3.55
	2.05	3.23	4.18
	2.15	3.29	3.31	Watch
	2	2.9	3.5
	1.9	3.16	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.08)	3.15 ↓ (3.31)	3.72 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
46%

Draw
29.3%

Ponferradina
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.1%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

28.6%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Ponferradina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 4. Rivas M. 23. Fati L. 21. Aguado D. 8. Angel M. (C) 14. Cestero Sancho J. 20. Fortuny P. 7. Yanez D. 37. Gines A. 10. Palacios C.	1. Prieto A. (G) 12. Koke 3. Novoa G. 5. Undabarrena E. 19. Lopez A. 26. Kysil V. 16. Frimpong E. 10. Valle B. (C) 17. Keita A. 9. Cortes J. 18. Vazquez B.
Substitutes
49. Arnuncio A. 33. Castrelo G. 17. Fortea J. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 30. Mesonero D. 6. Perea C. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G)	25. Barredo P. (G) 7. Calderon C. 22. Esquerdo V. 20. Ferrer P. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 4. Moltenis B. 11. Petkov S. 8. Slavy 15. Sousa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Aguado D. 🟨,
9', Valle B. 🟨,
30', Koke 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Keita A. ↓, Calderon C. ↑,
62', Koke ↓, Jorrin M. ↑,
65', Aguado D. ↓, Iglesias Lois B. ↑,
65', Gines A. ↓, Serrano M. ↑,
71', Kysil V. ↓, Slavy ↑,
71', Cortes J. ↓, Esquerdo V. ↑,
77', Jimenez D. ↓, Arnuncio A. ↑,
77', Yanez D. ↓, Fortea J. ↑,
81', Mesonero D. 🟨,
84', Cestero Sancho J. 🟨,
90', Vazquez B. ↓, Ferrer P. ↑,
90', 0 - 1, Frimpong E. ⚽,
90+9', Lopez A. 🟨,
90+9', Calderon C. 🟨,
90+11', Fortea J. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 7 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 1.

Real Madrid Castilla has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ponferradina is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real Madrid Castilla could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid Castilla won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.68%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Ponferradina - the odds 3.41 are the expected chance of winning is 27.25%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.02.26	Real Avilés - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Pontevedra - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Osasuna B	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Tenerife - Real Madrid Castilla	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWTTL
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.02.26	Ponferradina - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Ponferradina - Celta de Vigo B	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
05.10.25	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:3
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
24.03.19	Real Madrid Castilla - Ponferradina	0:0
03.11.18	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	3:2
21.01.18	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	3:2
03.09.17	Real Madrid Castilla - Ponferradina	1:1
Spanish LaLiga2
29.03.14	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0
27.10.13	Real Madrid Castilla - Ponferradina	1:1

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