Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 22

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Osasuna B

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.2	5.5
	1.65	3.4	5.15
	1.65	3.62	5.27
	1.75	3.45	4.8	Watch
	1.62	3.25	5
	1.68	3.35	5.76
	1.62	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.52)	3.38 ↓ (3.98)	5.21 ↓ (6.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
55.4%

Draw
27.1%

Osasuna B
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

23.4%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

18.6%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Madrid Castilla's form might have worsened.

Osasuna B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid Castilla that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna B than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Osasuna B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 4. Rivas M. 21. Aguado D. 3. Valdepenas V. 8. Angel M. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 16. Pitarch T. 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L. 10. Palacios C.	13. Rafa (G) 12. Lucero R. 4. Espejo D. 23. Serrano M. 21. Ruiz R. C. 11. Pedroarena M. 6. Echegoyen M. 16. Auria M. 10. Rico M. 8. Yoldi A. 19. Bonel A.
Substitutes
49. Arnuncio A. 20. Duran P. 23. Fati L. 17. Fortea J. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 39. Leiva A. 30. Mesonero D. 25. Mestre S. (G) 6. Perea C. 13. Sunico G. (G)	30. Anso M. 34. Arrasate I. 17. Arroyo R. 18. Bonel A. 26. Garin X. 9. Gonzalez D. 3. Jimenez A. 35. Kall A. 22. Larrion A. 7. Lumbreras C. 5. Santos U. 1. Stamatakis D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Pedroarena M. 🟨,
41', Serrano M. 🟥,
45+3', 1 - 0, Palacios C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pedroarena M. ↓, Arroyo R. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Arroyo R. ⚽,
68', Zuniga L. ↓, Arnuncio A. ↑,
70', Bonel A. ↓, Lumbreras C. ↑,
74', Pitarch T. ↓, Leiva A. ↑,
74', Angel M. ↓, Mesonero D. ↑,
79', Rivas M. 🟨,
80', Rico M. ↓, Arrasate I. ↑,
89', Yanez D. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
89', Palacios C. ↓, Iglesias Lois B. ↑,
90', Valdepenas V. 🟨,
90', Echegoyen M. 🟨,
90+5', Yoldi A. ↓, Garin X. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 7 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Real Madrid Castilla has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Osasuna B is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Madrid Castilla won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.01.26	Tenerife - Real Madrid Castilla	4:2 ✺
18.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Real Madrid Castilla	4:1 ✺
04.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Celta de Vigo B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LTLWL
- Osasuna B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.01.26	Osasuna B - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:3 ✺
18.01.26	Ourense CF - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Mérida AD - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Osasuna B - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
21.12.25	Arenteiro - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.09.25	Osasuna B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0

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