Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 24

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Fadura (Getxo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Arenas Club de Getxo		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.9	3	2.35
	2.92	3.05	2.38
	3.29	2.97	2.67
	3.08	2.76	2.61	Watch
	2.9	2.63	2.45
	3.15	2.56	2.56
	2.9	2.85	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.57)	2.83 ↓ (2.9)	2.49 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arenas Club de Getxo
30.5%

Draw
32.5%

Ponferradina
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

31.2%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

33.2%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arenas Club de Getxo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arenas Club de Getxo than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arenas Club de Getxo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ponferradina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Arenas Club de Getxo - Ponferradina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Pena A. (G) 21. Sillero J. (C) 4. Alvarez P. 5. Garcia P. 3. Fernandez Cozar M. 16. Verde A. 14. Glazer T. 8. Zabala M. 17. Navarro S. 2. Vizcay T. 22. Mattheus C.	1. Prieto A. (G) 12. Koke 3. Novoa G. 5. Undabarrena E. 19. Lopez A. 6. San Emeterio F. 16. Frimpong E. 10. Valle B. (C) 14. Fernandez X. 9. Cortes J. 18. Vazquez B.
Substitutes
25. Aragoneses S. (G) 27. Bazaga O. 24. Boriko S. 7. Collado U. 1. Gastesi O. (G) 6. Merino J. 19. Mutilva C. 23. Sustatxa A. 11. Troncho A. 9. Vazquez A. 15. Viglo S. 20. Zabaleta E.	7. Calderon C. 22. Esquerdo V. 20. Ferrer P. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 17. Keita A. 26. Kysil V. 4. Moltenis B. 11. Petkov S. 8. Slavy 15. Sousa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Vizcay T. 🟨,
56', Verde A. 🟨,
72', Fernandez X. ↓, Slavy ↑,
72', Cortes J. ↓, Keita A. ↑,
77', Navarro S. ↓, Bazaga O. ↑,
77', Mattheus C. ↓, Mathieu K. ↑,
81', Vazquez B. ↓, Calderon C. ↑,
84', Verde A. ↓, Collado U. ↑,
86', Frimpong E. 🟨,
89', Fernandez Cozar M. ↓, Mutilva C. ↑,
89', Vizcay T. ↓, Vazquez A. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 1, Slavy ⚽,
90+9', 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 11).

Recent performances by Arenas have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ponferradina is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arenas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11
20	Arenas Getxo	6	0	2	4	4:14	-10	2

Last Results with these Odds

Arenas Club de Getxo - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 35.18%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arenas Club de Getxo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.02.26	CD Guadalajara - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Osasuna B - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:3 ✺
18.01.26	Cacereño - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Real Madrid Castilla	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWWLW
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.02.26	Ponferradina - Celta de Vigo B	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Ponferradina - Ferrol	3:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ponferradina - Ourense CF	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Ponferradina - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:2

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