Match Info

Serie B - Round 22

Date: 14 August 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Pfleger J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ponte Preta		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	3.90	3.30	1.96	Watch
	3.60	3.20	1.98
	3.95	3.30	1.93	Watch
	4.04	3.43	2.06
	3.78	3.41	1.98	Watch
	3.95	3.40	1.97
	3.87	3.34	1.94	Watch
	3.70	3.25	2.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.85 ↑ (3.67)	3.33 ↓ (3.41)	1.98 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
24.4%

Draw
28.2%

Náutico Capibaribe
47.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.3%

27.2%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

27.1%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Vinicius Ferrari (G) 6. Juan Rodrigues 23. Palacios S. 44. Gustavo Almeida 4. Diego M. L. 8. Andre Lima 16. Leo Gomes 18. David da Hora 10. Elvis (C) 26. Baianinho 21. Brandao	1. Muriel Becker (C) 2. Arnaldo 3. Betao 46. Gustavo Henrique 23. Igor Fernandes 15. Leo Indio 8. Wenderson 24. Borasi B. 10. Jean Carlos 72. Derek 19. Kauan Maranhao
Substitutes
2. Cicala G. 1. Guilherme Viana (G) 35. Gustavo Telles 9. Joao Damiao 17. Miguel Morais 13. Souza M. 32. Vinicius C.	5. Auremir 88. Caio 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 37. Juan Rikelme 16. Luiz Claudio 22. Nunez P. 93. Reginaldo 6. Ryan Carlos 41. Samuel Felix 34. Wanderson
Coaches
Marcio Zanardi	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Brandao ⚽, David da Hora (A),
44', Leo Indio 🟨,
45+1', Borasi B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Igor Fernandes ↓, Ryan Carlos ↑,
46', Leo Indio ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
47', Diego M. L. 🟨,
54', Andre Lima 🟨,
59', Arnaldo 🟨,
60', Kauan Maranhao ↓, Luiz Claudio ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Borasi B. ⚽,
67', Nunez P. 🟨,
76', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Wanderson ↑,
76', Juan Rodrigues ↓, Miguel Morais ↑,
79', Arnaldo ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
82', Brandao ↓, Gustavo Telles ↑,
83', Nunez P. 🟨,
90+2', Betao 🟥,
90+3', Gustavo Almeida ↓, Joao Damiao ↑,
90+3', David da Hora ↓, Souza M. ↑,
90+7', Souza M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 3.

Ponte Preta has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Náutico has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Náutico will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Danilo Barcelos (Muscle Injury) Julio (Red Card) Lucas Cunha (Yellow Cards) Marcio Silva (Inactive)

There will not play in Náutico: Junior Todinho (Inactive) Luiz Felipe (Injury) Muriel Becker (Red Card) Paulo Sergio (Injury) Vinicius (Injury)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Murilo (Injury) Thalys (Inactive)

There are questionable in Náutico: Dodo (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:12. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.8:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Nautico	34	11	10	13	39:42	-3	43
20	Ponte Preta ✔	34	3	5	26	19:74	-55	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
07.08.26	Ceará - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Ponte Preta - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
22.07.26	Operário Ferroviario - Ponte Preta	3:2 ✺
18.07.26	Ponte Preta - Goiás	1:2 ✺
08.07.26	Ponte Preta - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTLLL
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
09.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
26.07.26	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
22.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Londrina	2:1 ✺
16.07.26	CRB Maceio - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
12.07.26	Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
04.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	1:0
Brazilian Serie C
27.09.25	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1
20.09.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1
24.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
04.11.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1
20.07.22	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
16.10.21	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	2:3

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