Match Info

Serie B - Round 35

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Silva M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	18:30	Disney+


	Ponte Preta		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	12.00	5.50	1.22	Watch
	10.50	5.75	1.23
	14.00	5.80	1.22	Watch
	12.79	6.10	1.25
	12	5.6	1.24	Watch
	11.00	6.00	1.23
	12.00	5.48	1.25	Watch
	11.00	5.60	1.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	11.91 ↑ (8.85)	5.73 ↑ (4.77)	1.23 ↓ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
7.9%

Draw
16.3%

Fortaleza
75.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

10.5%

19.5%

70.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

9.6%

17.7%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fortaleza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Ponte Preta - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ponte Preta will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Fortaleza (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Vinicius Ferrari (G) 32. Di Mauro F. 15. Gabriel Caran 44. Gustavo Almeida 14. Danilo Barcelos (C) 8. Karl 18. David da Hora 35. Gustavo Telles 5. Rodrigo Souza 19. Danilo Peu 9. Brandao	1. Joao Ricardo (C) 22. Mailton 23. Neris 15. Bastos 13. Mauricio Junior 8. Ronald 5. Pierre 75. Rodriguinho 11. Vitinho 91. Chico 16. Pedro Henrique
Substitutes
22. Denis 4. Diego M. L. 7. Ferreira E. 2. Guilherme Martins 1. Guilherme Viana (G) 6. Juan Rodrigues 16. Kawann 3. Lucas Cunha 17. Miguel Morais 23. Nicolas Araujo 20. Thevyn 21. Vitor Ribeiro	12. Henrique Kaio 4. Luan Freitas 19. Lucas Emanoel 3. Lucas Gazal 38. Lucca Prior 17. Nathan Fogaca 28. Paulinho 77. Paulo Baya 29. Rodrigo 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton
Coaches
Gilson Kleina	Autuori P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', Gustavo Telles 🟨,
24', Danilo Barcelos 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Mailton (Penalty Awarded),
32', Mailton 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Gustavo Almeida ⚽, Danilo Barcelos (A),
45+2', 2 - 1, Brandao ⚽, Gustavo Telles (A),
45+4', Di Mauro F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Vitinho ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
57', Pedro Henrique ↓, Welliton ↑,
60', Rodrigo Souza ↓, Denis ↑,
65', 2 - 2, Rodriguinho ⚽, Paulo Baya (A),
65', Mauricio Junior ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
72', Danilo Peu ↓, Lucas Cunha ↑,
72', David da Hora ↓, Ferreira E. ↑,
72', Karl ↓, Juan Rodrigues ↑,
76', Vinicius Ferrari 🟨,
86', Ronald ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
90+1', Gustavo Telles ↓, Diego M. L. ↑,

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 20th in the Relegation - Serie C (First stage: ) and 4th in the Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Playoffs - Final)).

Ponte Preta is Relegated to Serie C (First stage ).

Ponte Preta has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Fortaleza is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fortaleza holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Confirmed absences for Ponte Preta: Andrade R. (Red Card) Andre Lima (Injury) Elvis (Knee Injury) Jonathan Cafu (Injury) Kevyson (Knee Injury) Palacios S. (Yellow Cards).

Confirmed absences for Fortaleza: Cardona T. (Yellow Cards) Fuentes G. (Knee Injury) Jailson (Red Card) Lucas Sasha (Inactive) Miritello J. B. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Ponte Preta: Jonathan (Inactive) Souza M. (Inactive).

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ponte Preta against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:0 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43:31	12	61
20	Ponte Preta ✔	35	3	6	26	21:76	-55	15

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Fortaleza: 7.9%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
16.10.26	Ponte Preta - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
12.10.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ponte Preta	5:1 ✺
06.10.26	Ponte Preta - Juventude	0:2 ✺
03.10.26	Cuiabá - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
29.09.26	Botafogo SP - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLLLL
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
16.10.26	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
12.10.26	Fortaleza - CRB Maceio	2:2 ✺
07.10.26	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
02.10.26	Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	Fortaleza - Athletic Club	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.07.26	Fortaleza - Ponte Preta	2:0
26.10.18	Fortaleza - Ponte Preta	1:1
08.07.18	Ponte Preta - Fortaleza	2:0

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