Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 20

Date: 11 August 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: Santos Sa Junior F. A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Coritiba		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.6	5.75	Watch
	1.65	3.4	5.25
	1.63	3.6	5.5
	1.76	3.52	5.53
	1.73	3.46	5.03	Watch
	1.65	3.5	5.5
	1.66	3.62	5.36	Watch
	1.63	3.6	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.76)	3.54 ↑ (3.2)	5.43 ↑ (5.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
56.2%

Draw
26.5%

Ponte Preta
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

29.1%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

28.9%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	23.1%	30.8%

Coritiba - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Coritiba will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Coritiba: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
72. Pedro Morisco (G) 16. Natanael 14. Thalisson 4. Benevenuto 26. Bruno Melo 19. Gomez S. 40. Everton Morelli 10. Matheus Frizzo 98. Lucas Ronier 30. Robson (C) 22. Figueiredo	1. Pedro Rocha (G) 2. Igor Inocencio 4. Mateus Silva 6. Sergio Raphael 33. Risso G. 18. Emerson Santos 15. Castro 10. Elvis (C) 29. Everton Brito 9. Jeh 77. Matheus Regis
Substitutes
67. Benassi (G) 23. Bernardo 21. Brandao 7. Castillo E. 83. Jamerson 43. Jhonny 9. Junior Brumado 18. Matheus Bianqui 5. Mauricio Antonio 6. Rodrigo Gelado 36. Vini Paulista 57. Wesley Pomba	7. Dodo 3. Edson Rogerio 8. Emerson Santos 35. Gabriel Novaes 70. Guilherme Dantas 80. Hudson 11. Iago Dias 13. Joilson 30. Luan Ribeiro (G) 21. Ramon 58. Thomas Luciano
Coaches
Jorginho	Baptista N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', 1 - 0, Robson ⚽, Gomez S. (A),
45', Jeh 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Figueiredo ↓, Wesley Pomba ↑,
46', Matheus Regis ↓, Gabriel Novaes ↑,
46', Emerson Santos ↓,
58', Sergio Raphael 🟨,
63', Robson 🟥,
64', Bruno Melo 🟨,
66', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
66', Everton Morelli ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
67', Castro ↓, Ramon ↑,
67', Everton Brito ↓, Iago Dias ↑,
73', Iago Dias 🟨,
77', Wesley Pomba 🟨,
80', Lucas Ronier ↓, Junior Brumado ↑,
81', Elvis ↓, Guilherme Dantas ↑,
90', Gomez S. ↓, Bernardo ↑,
90+1', Matheus Bianqui 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 1, Gabriel Novaes ⚽,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 15 and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 2.

Coritiba is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ponte Preta is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ponte Preta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Coritiba is a favorite.

There will not play in Coritiba: Leandro Damiao (Personal Reasons)

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Ramon (Injury)

Last 18 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 21-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Coritiba won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 16-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
03.08.24	Botafogo SP - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
27.07.24	Coritiba - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
22.07.24	Santos - Coritiba	4:0 ✺
19.07.24	Coritiba - Mirassol	0:1 ✺
13.07.24	CRB Maceio - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLL
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
04.08.24	Ponte Preta - Avaí	1:0 ✺
27.07.24	Sport Recife - Ponte Preta	3:1 ✺
23.07.24	Ponte Preta - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
20.07.24	Paysandu - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
12.07.24	Ponte Preta - Mirassol	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
21.04.24	Ponte Preta - Coritiba	1:1
26.11.21	Ponte Preta - Coritiba	3:2
17.08.21	Coritiba - Ponte Preta	2:0
31.08.19	Ponte Preta - Coritiba	1:0
29.04.19	Coritiba - Ponte Preta	2:0
13.11.18	Ponte Preta - Coritiba	2:0
28.07.18	Coritiba - Ponte Preta	0:0

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