Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 4

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Filho A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN, SportyNet, Xsports


	Ponte Preta		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.75	2.57	Watch
	2.88	2.88	2.58	Watch
	2.99	3.02	2.68
	2.79	3.06	2.64	Watch
	2.9	2.8	2.5
	3.2	2.78	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.74)	2.88 (2.88)	2.58 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
31.4%

Draw
32.4%

Vila Nova
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

32.4%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

33.6%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Ponte Preta - Vila Nova Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Vila Nova (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 22. Thalys 33. David Braz (C) 44. Marcio Silva 32. Kevyson 8. Andre Lima 20. Murilo 90. Rodriguinho 10. Elvis 31. Bryan Borges 9. Willian Pottker	1. Helton Leite (G) 2. Elias 4. Pedro Romano 38. Caio Marcelo 6. Higor 15. Dudu 8. Willian Maranhao 11. Ryan 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 9. Rafa Silva
Substitutes
26. Baianinho 99. Brandao 14. Danilo Barcelos 7. Diego Tavares 30. Guilherme Viana (G) 2. Julio 16. Leo Gomes 3. Lucas Cunha 11. Luis Phelipe 17. Miguel Morais 5. Rodrigo Souza 35. Tarik	14. Anderson Jesus 33. Bruno Xavier 29. Dalberson (G) 21. Dodo 18. Enzo Bizzotto 19. Gustavo Puskas 22. Hayner 5. Joao Vieira 20. Nathan Camargo 3. Tiago Pagnussat 13. Willian Formiga
Coaches
Rodrigo Santana	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', David Braz ↓, Lucas Cunha ↑,
30', Pedro Romano 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Ryan ⚽, Janderson (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Elvis ↓, Luis Phelipe ↑,
54', Rafa Silva 🟨,
63', Rodriguinho ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
64', Ryan 🟨,
70', Ryan ↓, Bruno Xavier ↑,
70', Janderson ↓, Hayner ↑,
72', Murilo 🟨,
74', Murilo ↓, Miguel Morais ↑,
74', Willian Pottker ↓, Brandao ↑,
78', Elias ↓, Willian Formiga ↑,
78', Rafa Silva ↓, Gustavo Puskas ↑,
84', Dudu ↓, Nathan Camargo ↑,
90+6', Guto Ferreira 🟨,
90+11', Higor 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 2.

Recent form of Ponte Preta has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vila Nova has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ponte Preta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Jonathan Cafu (Red Card) Saravia Salvia R. A. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Rafa Silva (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 0.9:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
04.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Ponte Preta - Ceará	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Athletic Club - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
18.03.26	Atlético Goianiense - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
10.03.26	Ponte Preta - Guarany de Bagé	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLLW
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
08.04.26	Primavera AC - Vila Nova	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
04.04.26	Vila Nova - Atlético Goianiense	2:1 ✺
01.04.26	Sport Recife - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Centro Oeste
28.03.26	Vila Nova - Operário MS	6:0 ✺
24.03.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
11.11.24	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	2:1
23.07.24	Ponte Preta - Vila Nova	2:0
15.09.23	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	1:1
28.05.23	Ponte Preta - Vila Nova	1:0
08.10.22	Ponte Preta - Vila Nova	1:1
28.06.22	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	1:1
02.10.21	Ponte Preta - Vila Nova	1:1

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