Match Info

Paulista U20 - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday


	Ponte Preta U20		Guarani U20

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.3	2.15
	3	3.35	2.08
	3.16	3.3	2.06
	4.53	2.16	2.48	Watch
	2.89	3.51	2.22	Watch
	3	3.35	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (2.92)	3.16 ↓ (3.53)	2.18 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta U20
28.5%

Draw
29.2%

Guarani U20
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

25.8%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

25.1%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Guarani U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta U20 than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani U20 than the current prediction. (+2%)

Ponte Preta U20 - Guarani U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+2', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Ponte Preta U20 is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Guarani U20 is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Guarani U20 is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ponte Preta U20
Brazilian Paulista U20
26.09.25	Ituano U20 - Ponte Preta U20	1:2 penalties ✺
19.09.25	Ponte Preta U20 - Ituano U20	1:1 ✺
10.09.25	Ponte Preta U20 - Capivariano U20	1:0 ✺
05.09.25	Capivariano U20 - Ponte Preta U20	0:0 ✺
12.08.25	Ponte Preta U20 - São José-SP U20	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WTWTW
- Guarani U20
Brazilian Paulista U20
26.09.25	Guarani U20 - Grêmio Prudente U20	2:2 ✺
19.09.25	Grêmio Prudente U20 - Guarani U20	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Guarani U20 - Desportivo Brasil U20	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Desportivo Brasil U20 - Guarani U20	0:1 ✺
12.08.25	Guarani U20 - Flamengo de Guarulhos U20	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWWW

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