Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 7

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Municipal de Pasarón (Pontevedra) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Holgueras Castellanos N. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	16:30	Footballclub


	Pontevedra		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.90	3.20
	2.10	3.10	3.10
	1.98	3.15	3.40
	2.24	3.25	3.24
	2.24	3.12	3.29	Watch
	2.20	3.05	3.20
	2.26	3.05	3.36
	2.17	3.05	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.05)	3.08 ↓ (3.21)	3.26 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontevedra
42.2%

Draw
29.7%

Mérida AD
28.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.3%

28.9%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

24.5%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontevedra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontevedra than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Pontevedra - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marqueta R. (G) 16. Vidorreta A. 15. Alba D. 5. Perez A. 20. Rui Pedro 6. Ivorra I. 10. Pino Y. (C) 14. Macias L. 21. Charid I. 11. Elejalde I. 22. Comparada Gonzalez A.	1. Csenterics A. (G) 14. Carrillo H. 4. Gonzalez Nacho 20. Barbu 5. Sanz H. 7. Areso J. 21. Beneit R. (C) 8. Solar M. 6. Lopez J. 24. Kone 11. El Ftouhi S.
Substitutes
2. Argos A. 23. Bravo M. 18. Ergouai R. 13. Galindo I. (G) 3. Gaye P. 7. Gonzalez A. 4. Juanra 9. Mba D. 19. Omoregbe B. 8. Ramos J.	23. Almeida G. 22. Aranda A. 18. Dibrani B. 10. Doncel C. 16. Fito 26. Gil A. (G) 17. Guagua D. 9. Hallsson S. 2. Jay A. 13. Juhasz I. (G) 15. Salguero A. 19. Sandoval D.
Coaches
Dominguez R.	Beltran F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Ivorra I. 🟨,
34', Carrillo H. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, El Ftouhi S. ⚽, Beneit R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Charid I. ↓, Mba D. ↑,
46', Ivorra I. ↓, Ramos J. ↑,
52', Barbu 🟨,
61', Macias L. ↓, Gaye P. ↑,
63', Lopez J. ↓, Dibrani B. ↑,
64', Beneit R. 🟨,
71', Elejalde I. ↓, Argos A. ↑,
71', Barbu ↓, Fito ↑,
72', El Ftouhi S. ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
77', Areso J. 🟨,
79', Beneit R. ↓, Jay A. ↑,
79', Kone ↓, Hallsson S. ↑,
82', 0 - 2, Hallsson S. ⚽, Dibrani B. (A),
84', Perez A. ↓, Omoregbe B. ↑,
90', Gaye P. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, Gaye P. ⚽, Pino Y. (A),
90+5', Solar M. 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11th and 15th).

In recent outings, Pontevedra has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Mérida AD is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Pontevedra could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Pontevedra holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Pontevedra has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:9 (averaging 0.8:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pontevedra against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:6 goals (averaging 1:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Pontevedra	9	4	2	3	12:11	1	14
9	AD Merida	9	4	1	4	15:12	3	13

Last Results with these Odds

Pontevedra - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.29%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontevedra CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.10.26	Ferrol - Pontevedra	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Pontevedra - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
18.09.26	UD Logroñés - Pontevedra	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Pontevedra - Athletic Bilbao B	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Pontevedra - Arenas Club de Getxo	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTTLW
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.10.26	Mérida AD - Cacereño	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Mérida AD - UD Logroñés	3:5 ✺
19.09.26	Ponferradina - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Mérida AD - Mirandés	3:4 ✺
06.09.26	Leonesa - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
23.01.26	Mérida AD - Pontevedra	1:1
15.11.25	Pontevedra - Mérida AD	1:1
15.04.23	Pontevedra - Mérida AD	1:5
01.10.22	Mérida AD - Pontevedra	2:0

Pontevedra - Mérida AD