Match Info

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday


	Pontevedra		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2	3	3.5
	2.02	3	3.6
	2.05	3.21	3.6	Watch
	2.04	3.13	3.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.05)	3.09 ↓ (3.21)	3.52 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontevedra
44.8%

Draw
29.4%

Mérida AD
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

28.9%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

24.5%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontevedra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

The chances for Mérida AD have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontevedra than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pontevedra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Pontevedra - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11th and 14th).

In recent outings, Pontevedra has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Mérida AD has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Mérida AD may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Pontevedra holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Pontevedra has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:9 (averaging 0.8:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pontevedra against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:6 goals (averaging 1:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Pontevedra	6	2	2	2	8:8	0	8
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Pontevedra - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.29%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontevedra CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.10.26	Ferrol - Pontevedra	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Pontevedra - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
18.09.26	UD Logroñés - Pontevedra	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Pontevedra - Athletic Bilbao B	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Pontevedra - Arenas Club de Getxo	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTTLW
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.10.26	Mérida AD - Cacereño	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Mérida AD - UD Logroñés	3:5 ✺
19.09.26	Ponferradina - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Mérida AD - Mirandés	3:4 ✺
06.09.26	Leonesa - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
23.01.26	Mérida AD - Pontevedra	1:1
15.11.25	Pontevedra - Mérida AD	1:1
15.04.23	Pontevedra - Mérida AD	1:5
01.10.22	Mérida AD - Pontevedra	2:0

Pontevedra - Mérida AD: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide