Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 38

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Pasarón (Pontevedra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, TVG 2


	Pontevedra		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	4.5
	1.72	3.4	4.1
	1.72	3.45	4.45
	1.75	3.33	4.55
	1.75	3.56	4.59	Watch
	1.7	3.25	4.33
	1.76	3.51	4.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.52)	3.41 ↓ (4.01)	4.45 ↓ (5.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontevedra
52.8%

Draw
26.7%

Real Avilés
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

23.1%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

22.4%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontevedra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pontevedra's form might have worsened.

Real Avilés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontevedra than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pontevedra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Avilés, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Pontevedra - Real Avilés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Marqueta R. (G) 16. Vidorreta A. 4. Bosch M. 23. Montoro A. 12. Ballardo F. 10. Pino Y. (C) 20. Gil A. 6. Ribeiro A. 21. Gomez D. 22. Comparada Gonzalez A. 14. Resende J.	1. Fernandez A. (G) 20. Campabadal E. 5. Babin J. (C) 24. Lopez A. 15. Chukwuma E. 26. Carracedo O. 17. Bari Q. 16. Gomez A. 8. Bautista K. 14. Cayarga B. 9. Santamaria A.
Substitutes
8. Abelenda B. 2. Eimil V. 3. Exposito A. 19. Garay B. 7. Gonzalez A. 18. Lopez R. 17. Macias L. 5. Perez A. 1. Sousa E. (G)	13. Almodovar N. (G) 10. Cueto J. 3. Diaz V. 18. Gete A. 12. Grigore R. 22. Isi Ros 7. Luis Alcalde 2. Ortega G. 19. Poquet N. 23. Rivera C. 11. Rubio R. 21. Uzkudun A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Bautista K. ⚽,
20', Chukwuma E. 🟨,
33', Comparada Gonzalez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Resende J. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Santamaria A. ⚽,
57', Ballardo F. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
57', Gil A. ↓, Macias L. ↑,
61', Lopez A. 🟨,
68', Gomez A. 🟨,
70', Bosch M. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
73', Campabadal E. 🟨,
74', Santamaria A. ↓, Ortega G. ↑,
74', Campabadal E. ↓, Uzkudun A. ↑,
74', Montoro A. ↓, Eimil V. ↑,
80', Vidorreta A. 🟨,
84', Bari Q. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
84', Bautista K. ↓, Gete A. ↑,
88', Cayarga B. ↓, Isi Ros ↑,
90', Isi Ros 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+3', Carracedo O. 🟥,
90+5', 1 - 2, Ribeiro A. ⚽,
90+7', Isi Ros 🟨,
90+15', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontevedra won 2.

In recent matches, Pontevedra has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Avilés is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Pontevedra is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Pontevedra won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:5. (average 1.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontevedra won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Pontevedra	6	2	2	2	8:8	0	8
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontevedra CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.26	Tenerife - Pontevedra	3:0 ✺
09.05.26	Pontevedra - Athletic Bilbao B	4:0 ✺
02.05.26	Ferrol - Pontevedra	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Pontevedra - Celta de Vigo B	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	CD Guadalajara - Pontevedra	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWTTW
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.26	Real Avilés - Barakaldo	1:4 ✺
09.05.26	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	3:1 ✺
02.05.26	Real Avilés - CD Guadalajara	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Ferrol - Real Avilés	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Real Avilés - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.01.26	Real Avilés - Pontevedra	0:3
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
16.03.25	Real Avilés - Pontevedra	1:0
03.11.24	Pontevedra - Real Avilés	1:1
10.03.24	Pontevedra - Real Avilés	2:0
29.10.23	Real Avilés - Pontevedra	1:1
10.04.22	Pontevedra - Real Avilés	3:2
21.11.21	Real Avilés - Pontevedra	0:3

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