Match Info

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday


	Ponferradina		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.25	3.9
	1.82	3.3	4
	1.84	3.46	4.07	Watch
	1.82	3.36	3.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.84)	3.34 ↓ (3.46)	3.96 ↓ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
49.9%

Draw
27.2%

Real Avilés
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

26.8%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

25.9%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Real Avilés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Ponferradina - Real Avilés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the top-ranked clubs faces a lower-table side fighting for vital survival points (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs and 17th in the Relegation).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Ponferradina may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Ponferradina carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Ponferradina has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:2 (averaging 1.8:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ponferradina against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:2 goals (averaging 1.3:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Ponferradina - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.41%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.10.26	Ponferradina - Mirandés	1:0 ✺
27.09.26	Pontevedra - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Ponferradina - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Ponferradina - Lugo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTWLT
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.10.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
27.09.26	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	3:3 ✺
19.09.26	Coria - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Real Avilés - Unionistas de Salamanca	3:1 ✺
06.09.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
01.08.26	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	1:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.05.26	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	3:1
31.08.25	Real Avilés - Ponferradina	0:3
Club Friendly
02.08.23	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	0:0

Ponferradina - Real Avilés: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide