Match Info

Cymru South - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: USW Sports Park (Pontypridd)


	Pontypridd United		Newport City

	1	X	2
	3.45	3.85	1.78
	3.51	3.95	1.82
	1.70	3.47	5.01	Watch
	3.63	3.88	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↓ (3.9)	3.79 ↑ (3.78)	2.62 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
33.5%

Draw
27.2%

Newport City
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

24.1%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

23.7%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pontypridd United's performance.

Newport City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newport City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pontypridd United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (+14.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newport City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pontypridd United - Newport City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Johnson S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
51', 1 - 1, Cooper L. ⚽,
63', 1 - 2, Garrett L. ⚽,
70', 1 - 3, Garrett L. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

Recent form of Pontypridd has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Newport City is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Newport City will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pontypridd won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Pontypridd won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
05.09.25	Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town	3:1 ✺
25.08.25	Caerau Ely - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Pontypridd United - Cardiff Draconians	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	0:0 ✺
08.08.25	Pontypridd United - Ynyshir Albions	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLLTL
- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
05.09.25	Newport City - Cambrian United	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Newport City	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Newport City - Ynyshir Albions	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Baglan Dragons - Newport City	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Trefelin - Newport City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
10.01.25	Pontypridd United - Newport City	0:2
27.09.24	Newport City - Pontypridd United	0:1

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