Match Info

USL League One

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Fitzpatrick Stadium (Portland, ME)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Portland Hearts of Pine		Forward Madison

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.70	3.30	2.20
	2.65	3.25	2.30
	2.70	3.55	2.35
	2.88	3.63	2.24	Watch
	2.65	3.50	2.30
	2.64	3.44	2.26	Watch
	2.75	3.30	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.7)	3.42 ↑ (3.15)	2.27 ↓ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portland Hearts of Pine
33.5%

Draw
26.5%

Forward Madison
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

28.4%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

28.3%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portland Hearts of Pine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Forward Madison has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portland Hearts of Pine than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Forward Madison than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morse H. (G) 26. Hata E. 66. Green K. 22. Evans B. 6. Mohamed M. 98. Kidd M. 21. Georgallides K. 8. Poon-Angeron M. (C) 16. Gonzalez D. 10. Wright O. 9. Camara A.	1. Harms J. (G) 20. Carmichael K. (C) 5. Shannon J. 4. McCamy C. 33. Toure K. 3. Edwards A. 12. Torres R. 6. Kanyane G. 9. Carmichael R. 21. Karamoko H. 7. Bolma J.
Substitutes
44. Faye S. 24. Felipe 35. Huck T. 2. Jones-Riley J. 11. Kamara J. 5. Lopez M. 23. Oladapo K. (G)	57. Augee B. 24. Forbes J. 14. Gyamfi S. 19. Manske T. (G) 23. Munjoma E. 11. Ngoubou C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Wright O. 🟨,
10', Kidd M. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Karamoko H. ⚽, Bolma J. (A),
29', Karamoko H. (Penalty Awarded),
35', Shannon J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kanyane G. ↓, Munjoma E. ↑,
52', Karamoko H. ↓, Gyamfi S. ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Carmichael R. ⚽,
62', Edwards A. ↓, Forbes J. ↑,
62', Georgallides K. ↓, Kamara J. ↑,
70', Kidd M. ↓, Huck T. ↑,
70', Camara A. ↓, Felipe ↑,
71', Felipe 🟨,
80', Bolma J. ↓, Ngoubou C. ↑,
80', McCamy C. ↓, Augee B. ↑,
81', Kamara J. 🟥,
85', Gyamfi S. 🟨,
86', 1 - 2, Gonzalez D. ⚽, Wright O. (A),
89', Poon-Angeron M. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
90+3', Toure K. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent form of Hearts of Pine has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Forward Madison is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hearts of Pine may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Forward Madison has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hearts of Pine won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Hearts of Pine won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Forward Madison ✔	29	15	7	7	50:27	23	52
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	43:53	-10	31

Last Results with these Odds

Portland Hearts of Pine - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.16%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portland Hearts of Pine
USL League One
08.08.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Corpus Christi	0:2 ✺
01.08.26	Greenville Triumph - Portland Hearts of Pine	3:3 ✺
22.07.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Union Omaha	1:2 ✺
17.07.26	Boise - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:1 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - New York Cosmos	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTLLW
- Forward Madison
USL League One
12.08.26	Forward Madison - Greenville Triumph	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Boise - Forward Madison	2:1 ✺
01.08.26	Forward Madison - Westchester SC	2:0 ✺
29.07.26	Forward Madison - Chattanooga Red Wolves	5:2 ✺
25.07.26	Forward Madison - Naples	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
04.10.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Forward Madison	1:3
24.05.25	Forward Madison - Portland Hearts of Pine	1:1

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