Match Info

USL League One

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Fitzpatrick Stadium (Portland, ME)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Portland Hearts of Pine		Greenville Triumph

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.18	3.2	2.92
	2.09	3.45	3.09
	2.16	3.57	3.07	Watch
	2.15	3.1	2.9
	2.12	3.32	3.04	Watch
	2.58	3.15	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.58)	3.3 ↑ (3.15)	2.92 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portland Hearts of Pine
41.2%

Draw
27.6%

Greenville Triumph
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

28.8%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

27.9%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portland Hearts of Pine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portland Hearts of Pine's performance.

Greenville Triumph has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portland Hearts of Pine than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greenville Triumph than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Portland Hearts of Pine - Greenville Triumph Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morse H. (G) 6. Mohamed M. 44. Faye S. 66. Green K. 99. Drack J. 18. Barbosa D. 35. Huck T. 8. Poon-Angeron M. (C) 7. Varela W. 9. Camara A. 10. Wright O.	13. Knight A. (G) 22. Fritz K. 5. Fricke B. 15. Patti A. 20. Seagrist P. 18. Evans C. 8. Herrera C. 7. Boyce D. 12. Lee E. 9. Robles R. 19. Liadi A.
Substitutes
25. Espinosa E. 22. Evans B. 21. Georgallides K. 19. Hersi K. 11. Kamara J. 23. Oladapo K. (G) 41. Scarlett Z.	10. Akio W. 11. Bouregy J. 25. Castro L. 33. Meek L. 3. Polak T. 30. Torman S. (G) 14. Wu D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Lee E. 🟨,
31', Faye S. 🟨,
45+2', Barbosa D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', Evans C. 🟨,
58', Liadi A. 🟨,
61', Varela W. ↓, Kamara J. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Robles R. ⚽,
75', Robles R. ↓, Meek L. ↑,
76', Patti A. 🟥,
78', 1 - 1, Wright O. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Huck T. ↓, Scarlett Z. ↑,
79', Faye S. ↓, Evans B. ↑,
87', Boyce D. ↓, Castro L. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 16).

Recent performances by Hearts of Pine have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Greenville is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Greenville may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hearts of Pine won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Hearts of Pine won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	43:53	-10	31
16	Greenville	28	6	5	17	30:52	-22	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portland Hearts of Pine
USL Cup
16.05.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Rhode Island	2:1 ✺
USL League One
09.05.26	Union Omaha - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:2 ✺
06.05.26	Fort Wayne - Portland Hearts of Pine	3:0 ✺
02.05.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - New York Cosmos	3:1 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Westchester SC - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WTLWT
- Greenville Triumph
USL League One
09.05.26	Greenville Triumph - Richmond Kickers	0:3 ✺
02.05.26	Union Omaha - Greenville Triumph	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Greenville Triumph	3:0 ✺
USL League One
04.04.26	Naples - Greenville Triumph	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Greenville Triumph - Westchester SC	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
03.09.25	Greenville Triumph - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:3
16.07.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Greenville Triumph	3:1

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