Match Info

USL Cup

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Fitzpatrick Stadium (Portland, ME)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Portland Hearts of Pine		Rhode Island

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.95	3.55	1.58
	4.86	3.73	1.58
	1.40	5.00	5.97	Watch
	4.8	3.4	1.62
	5.19	3.62	1.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.24 ↑ (4.04)	3.86 ↑ (3.58)	2.47 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portland Hearts of Pine
26.2%

Draw
28.8%

Rhode Island
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.6%

25.5%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

24.3%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portland Hearts of Pine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Rhode Island has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rhode Island might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portland Hearts of Pine than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rhode Island than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Portland Hearts of Pine - Rhode Island Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Morse H. (G) 2. Jones-Riley J. 44. Faye S. 66. Green K. 99. Drack J. 7. Varela W. 8. Poon-Angeron M. (C) 18. Barbosa D. 10. Wright O. 14. Washington T. 98. Kidd M.	1. Koke Vegas (C) 22. Scardina N. 5. Stoneman G. 32. Diop H. 3. Sanchez A. 10. Rodriguez A. 21. Herivaux Z. 77. Shapiro-Thompson A. 17. Kwizera J. 9. Williams J. 11. Fuson N.
Substitutes
9. Camara A. 22. Evans B. 35. Huck T. 11. Kamara J. 5. Lopez M. 27. Mensah E. 23. Oladapo K. (G)	7. Atkinson D. 4. Bacharach Capdevila H. 29. Castro J. (G) 14. Dorsey L. 12. Holstad C. 8. Leo Afonso 24. Yao K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Kidd M. ⚽, Wright O. (A),
27', 2 - 0, Wright O. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sanchez A. ↓, Yao K. ↑,
46', Herivaux Z. ↓, Bacharach Capdevila H. ↑,
46', Fuson N. ↓, Dorsey L. ↑,
48', Kwizera J. 🟨,
59', Rodriguez A. ↓, Atkinson D. ↑,
61', 2 - 1, Dorsey L. ⚽, Shapiro-Thompson A. (A),
63', Barbosa D. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
67', Washington T. 🟨,
72', Wright O. ↓, Huck T. ↑,
72', Varela W. ↓, Kamara J. ↑,
72', Stoneman G. ↓, Holstad C. ↑,
77', Kidd M. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
77', Washington T. ↓, Evans B. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Hearts of Pine may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Rhode Island is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hearts of Pine won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Including home match between the teams, Hearts of Pine won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portland Hearts of Pine
USL League One
09.05.26	Union Omaha - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:2 ✺
06.05.26	Fort Wayne - Portland Hearts of Pine	3:0 ✺
02.05.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - New York Cosmos	3:1 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Westchester SC - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:2 ✺
USL League One
19.04.26	Portland Hearts of Pine - Naples	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLWTT
- Rhode Island FC
USL Championship
09.05.26	Rhode Island - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Rhode Island - Birmingham Legion	1:3 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Hartford Athletic - Rhode Island	0:0 ✺
USL Championship
22.04.26	Rhode Island - Charleston Battery	4:0 ✺
US Open Cup
14.04.26	New England Revolution - Rhode Island	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Cup
27.06.25	Rhode Island - Portland Hearts of Pine	4:1
US Open Cup
15.04.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Rhode Island	1:2

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