Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 33

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday


	Portugalete		Aurrerá de Vitoria

	1	X	2
	1.42	3.65	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 (1.42)	3.65 (3.65)	5.8 (5.8)

The best margin for this event is 15.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portugalete
61.2%

Draw
23.8%

Aurrerá de Vitoria
15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

22.3%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Portugalete have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Aurrerá de Vitoria have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aurrerá de Vitoria than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
67', 1 - 1, ⚽,
74', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 9).

In recent matches, Portugalete has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Aurrerá de Vitoria has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Portugalete is the clear favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:2. (average 2.8:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Portugalete won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Aurrera de Vitoria	5	4	1	0	10:4	6	13

Last Results with these Odds

Portugalete - the odds 1.42 are the expected chance of winning is 61.2%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
25.04.26	Leioa - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
17.04.26	Portugalete - Eibar C	4:2 ✺
11.04.26	Añorga - Portugalete	4:1 ✺
01.04.26	Portugalete - Durango	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Aretxabaleta - Portugalete	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TWLWT
- Aurrerá de Vitoria
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
25.04.26	Aurrerá de Vitoria - San Ignacio	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Derio - Aurrerá de Vitoria	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Touring KE	0:2 ✺
01.04.26	Alavés C - Aurrerá de Vitoria	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Zarautz KE	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
03.01.26	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Portugalete	1:2
11.02.23	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Portugalete	0:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
15.04.18	Portugalete - Aurrerá de Vitoria	6:1
19.11.17	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Portugalete	0:3

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