Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 29

Date: 1 April 2026, Wednesday


	Portugalete		Durango

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.35	7.3
	1.39	4.3	7.53
	1.13	8.21	13.39	Watch
	1.36	3.8	8.5
	1.33	4.2	8.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.32)	4.97 ↑ (4.48)	9.12 ↑ (8.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portugalete
71%

Draw
18.7%

Durango
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

20.3%

10.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.6%

19.2%

10.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Durango has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Durango than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Portugalete - Durango Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Cuello Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 4.

Portugalete is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Durango is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Durango may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Portugalete is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:4. (average 1.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Portugalete won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:3. (average 2.2:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Durango	5	1	3	1	8:8	0	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
29.03.26	Aretxabaleta - Portugalete	2:2 ✺
19.03.26	Portugalete - Zamudio	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Santurtzi - Portugalete	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Portugalete - Real Sociedad C	4:0 ✺
28.02.26	Pasaia - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TWTWT
- SCD Durango
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
28.03.26	Durango - San Ignacio	0:1 ✺
19.03.26	Derio - Durango	4:0 ✺
14.03.26	Durango - Touring KE	3:0 ✺
08.03.26	Alavés C - Durango	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Durango - Aurrerá de Vitoria	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
22.11.25	Durango - Portugalete	1:1
29.03.25	Durango - Portugalete	0:1
16.11.24	Portugalete - Durango	2:0
27.04.24	Portugalete - Durango	5:1
17.12.23	Durango - Portugalete	0:2
05.02.23	Portugalete - Durango	1:1
01.10.22	Durango - Portugalete	0:1

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