Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 6

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani (Potenza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252


	Potenza		Cavese

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.80	3.40	3.60
	1.83	3.15	3.75	Watch
	1.90	3.59	4.35
	1.83	3.53	3.87	Watch
	1.81	3.55	4.10
	1.88	3.54	3.95	Watch
	1.83	3.50	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.15)	3.47 ↑ (3.22)	3.91 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Potenza
50%

Draw
26.5%

Cavese
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

28.2%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

26.9%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Potenza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Potenza's performance.

Cavese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cavese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Potenza than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Potenza that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cavese than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Potenza - Cavese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Cucchietti T. (G) 26. Kirwan N. 6. Loiacono G. 25. Staver C. 98. Adjapong C. 8. Castorani M. 24. Bando A. 23. De Marco A. 30. Petrungaro L. 9. Murano J. (C) 10. D'Auria G.	22. Bertini M. (G) 8. Diarrassouba A. 28. Mannucci T. 25. Peretti M. (C) 23. Fiordaliso A. 62. D'Amore F. 24. Orlando F. 20. Esposito G. 61. Maiolo F. 82. Fusco G. 11. Sava S.
Substitutes
7. Bruschi N. 47. Bura R. 1. Franchi D. (G) 14. Franzolini A. 77. Ghisolfi M. 35. Giannini D. 12. Gironi C. (G) 21. Manfredonia M. 80. Matheu P. 11. Mazzeo L. 3. Russo L. 70. Selleri G. 2. Verza N.	97. Acerbo F. 9. Alberti T. 2. Asiatico P. 12. Boffelli V. (G) 26. Cionek T. 47. Fiorin G. 1. Juwer R. (G) 7. Minaj E. 17. Nunziata F. 33. Personeni M. 15. Ponziglione I. 46. Severino G.
Coaches
Tisci I.	Masitto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Murano J. ⚽,
26', Maiolo F. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 0, Petrungaro L. ⚽, Kirwan N. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Maiolo F. ↓, Fiorin G. ↑,
46', Sava S. ↓, Minaj E. ↑,
47', 2 - 1, Fusco G. ⚽, Minaj E. (A),
57', 2 - 2, Minaj E. ⚽, Orlando F. (A),
60', Fiordaliso A. ↓, Cionek T. ↑,
62', Peretti M. 🟨,
64', 3 - 2, Castorani M. ⚽, Adjapong C. (A),
65', Adjapong C. ↓, Russo L. ↑,
65', D'Auria G. ↓, Matheu P. ↑,
65', De Marco A. ↓, Franzolini A. ↑,
69', Fusco G. ↓, Alberti T. ↑,
75', Murano J. ↓, Selleri G. ↑,
79', D'Amore F. ↓, Nunziata F. ↑,
84', Bando A. ↓, Ghisolfi M. ↑,
89', Petrungaro L. 🟨,
90+2', 4 - 2, Selleri G. ⚽,

Preview

A clear contrast in standings as an upper-tier team meets a relegation-threatened side (ranked 5th in the Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 16th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Potenza won 1.

Potenza is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Cavese have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Cavese may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Potenza is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Potenza has recorded 4 wins, 8 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 21:14 (averaging 1.6:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Potenza against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, with 15:10 goals (averaging 2.1:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Potenza	8	6	1	1	21:11	10	19
11	Cavese	8	3	2	3	14:14	0	11

Last Results with these Odds

Potenza - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 42.23%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Cavese - the odds 3.08 are the expected chance of winning is 29.53%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Potenza FC
Italian Serie C Group C
15.09.26	Bari - Potenza	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Salernitana - Potenza	4:2 ✺
05.09.26	Potenza - Monopoli	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
01.09.26	Potenza - Monopoli	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie C Group C
29.08.26	Nuova Cosenza - Potenza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TLWWW
- USD Cavese 1919
Italian Serie C Group C
15.09.26	Cavese - Sorrento	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Nuova Cosenza - Cavese	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Salernitana - Cavese	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Cavese - Audace Cerignola	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Bari - Cavese	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
14.03.26	Potenza - Cavese	2:2
07.11.25	Cavese - Potenza	3:0
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.25	Potenza - Cavese	1:0
Italian Serie C Group C
08.03.25	Potenza - Cavese	2:2
26.10.24	Cavese - Potenza	0:0
31.03.21	Cavese - Potenza	0:2
01.11.20	Potenza - Cavese	4:4

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