Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 9

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Carlo Speroni (Busto Arsizio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Max
World	Onefootball


	Pro Patria		Brescia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	6.9	4.05	1.43
	8.86	4.01	1.42
	7.62	3.71	1.48	Watch
	6.55	4.09	1.49	Watch
	5.51	3.74	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.09 ↑ (3.93)	3.92 ↑ (3.53)	1.47 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pro Patria
13.1%

Draw
23.7%

Brescia
63.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.5%

26.2%

50.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

25.1%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pro Patria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pro Patria's form might have worsened.

Brescia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brescia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pro Patria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brescia than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brescia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Pro Patria - Brescia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Brescia will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Brescia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Pro Patria (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Pro Patria (2.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Pro Patria (votes: 2 - 50%). Brescia (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rovida W. (G) 4. Reggiori P. 26. Masi A. 39. Motolese M. 20. Mora C. 25. Ferri D. 14. Citterio G. 5. Di Munno A. 93. Dimarco C. 10. Mastroianni F. 9. Udoh K.	66. Gori S. (G) 4. Sorensen F. 5. Pasini N. 3. Rizzo A. 18. De Maria V. 6. Mercati A. 20. Zennaro M. 7. Di Molfetta D. (C) 24. Boci B. 97. Cazzadori D. 32. Spagnoli A.
Substitutes
13. Aliata T. 15. Auci A. 80. Bagatti N. 16. Frattini A. 56. Ganz S. 27. Giudici L. 12. Gnonto R. (G) 7. Orfei A. 11. Renelus B. 8. Schiavone A. 19. Travaglini C. 6. Viti M. 22. Zamarian M. (G)	82. Armati L. 8. Balestrero D. 22. Damioli M. (G) 15. De Francesco A. 21. Fogliata R. 37. Giani E. 1. Liverani L. (G) 17. Maistrello T. 45. Valente M. 77. Vesentini F. 9. Vido L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Rizzo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Mora C. ↓, Orfei A. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, De Maria V. ⚽,
52', Masi A. 🟨,
57', 0 - 2, Di Molfetta D. ⚽,
62', Ferri D. ↓, Schiavone A. ↑,
64', Sorensen F. ↓, Balestrero D. ↑,
75', Cazzadori D. ↓, Maistrello T. ↑,
76', Spagnoli A. ↓, Vido L. ↑,
79', Udoh K. ↓, Renelus B. ↑,
81', Di Molfetta D. ↓, Fogliata R. ↑,
81', Zennaro M. ↓, De Francesco A. ↑,
88', Citterio G. ↓, Ganz S. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/16~finals)).

Pro Patria has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Brescia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pro Patria may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Brescia is a strong favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
05.10.25	Pro Patria - Trento	2:2 ✺
29.09.25	Cittadella - Pro Patria	0:0 ✺
25.09.25	Pro Patria - AlbinoLeffe	0:3 ✺
21.09.25	Vicenza Virtus - Pro Patria	3:0 ✺
14.09.25	Pro Patria - Novara	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTLLT
- Union Brescia
Italian Serie C Group A
04.10.25	Brescia - Pergolettese	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Virtus Verona - Brescia	1:1 ✺
25.09.25	Brescia - Novara	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Brescia - Giana Erminio	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Renate - Brescia	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTTWW

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