Match Info

ITALY: Serie D - Group B - Round 21

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Ernesto Breda (Sesto San Giovanni)


	Pro Sesto		Castellanzese

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.5	4.6
	1.65	3.55	4.7
	1.66	3.66	4.67	Watch
	1.65	3.5	4.5
	1.63	3.58	4.87
	1.65	3.55	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.62)	3.56 ↓ (3.59)	4.67 ↓ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pro Sesto
55.1%

Draw
25.5%

Castellanzese
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

25.4%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

17.2%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pro Sesto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Castellanzese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pro Sesto than the current prediction. (-17.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pro Sesto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellanzese than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castellanzese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pro Sesto - Castellanzese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Salina G. 🟥,
16', 1 - 0, Busatto T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 1 - 1, Boix J. (Pen),

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 14).

Pro Sesto is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Castellanzese has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Pro Sesto is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Pro Sesto won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pro Sesto Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group B
05.01.25	Casatese - Pro Sesto	2:1 ✺
22.12.24	Ciliverghe di Mazzano - Pro Sesto	1:2 ✺
15.12.24	Pro Sesto - Vigasio	1:1 ✺
01.12.24	Pro Sesto - Ospitaletto	0:1 ✺
17.11.24	Folgore Caratese - Pro Sesto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWTLL
- USD Castellanzese
Italian Serie D - Group B
05.01.25	Castellanzese - Ospitaletto	0:3 ✺
22.12.24	Castellanzese - Desenzano Calvina	1:1 ✺
15.12.24	Folgore Caratese - Castellanzese	5:1 ✺
08.12.24	Castellanzese - SantAngelo	1:3 ✺
01.12.24	Chievo - Castellanzese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
15.09.24	Castellanzese - Pro Sesto	1:0
09.02.20	Castellanzese - Pro Sesto	2:1

Pro Sesto - Castellanzese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide