Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Silvio Piola (Vercelli)

Referee: Leorsini L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max


	Pro Vercelli		Carpi

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.10	3.25	3.00
	2.12	3.3	3.05	Watch
	2.18	3.41	3.13
	2.13	3.36	3.13	Watch
	2.11	3.3	3
	2.16	3.73	3.15	Watch
	2.12	3.35	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.45)	3.39 ↑ (2.95)	3.07 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pro Vercelli
43%

Draw
27.1%

Carpi
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

30.5%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

29.6%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pro Vercelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pro Vercelli's performance.

Carpi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pro Vercelli than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pro Vercelli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Pro Vercelli - Carpi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. Livieri A. (G) 16. Ronchi N. 4. Van Koeverden L. 3. Coccolo L. 18. Piran L. 8. Burruano A. 14. Iotti I. (C) 5. Boufandar A. 25. Pagliari M. 9. Bertoli M. 11. Sow O.	22. Gasperini T. (G) 4. Zagnoni D. (C) 19. Rossini M. 24. Desole F. 10. Casarini F. 5. Figoli M. 21. Forapani M. 25. Vaglica G. 90. Vitale V. 11. Puletto F. 9. Montipo M.
Substitutes
24. Andreotti R. (G) 28. Carosso A. 77. Del Favero M. (G) 6. el Bakkali Z. 7. Mallahi M. 30. Moretti A. 45. Satriano A. 32. Zacchera G.	8. Bagatti N. 18. Carcani T. 7. Cecotti T. 17. Lombardi L. 2. Maggio S. 23. Morosini L. 16. Nesi L. 31. Ricciardi R. 83. Sall A. 1. Scacchetti A. (G)
Coaches
Bonera D.	Cassani S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Ronchi N. 🟨,
16', 1 - 0, Bertoli M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Figoli M. 🟨,
54', Vaglica G. ↓, Cecotti T. ↑,
57', Burruano A. 🟨,
65', 2 - 0, Coccolo L. ⚽, Bertoli M. (A),
66', Montipo M. ↓, Morosini L. ↑,
66', Forapani M. ↓, Carcani T. ↑,
70', Pagliari M. 🟨,
76', Ronchi N. ↓, Moretti A. ↑,
76', Pagliari M. ↓, Carosso A. ↑,
80', Carosso A. 🟨,
81', Vitale V. ↓, Sall A. ↑,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 18th in the Serie C - Play Out and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pro Vercelli won 1.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Pro Vercelli holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Pro Vercelli has recorded 1 win, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:5 (averaging 0.3:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pro Vercelli against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals (averaging 0.3:0 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Pro Vercelli	8	2	3	3	8:11	-3	9
16	Carpi	8	1	3	4	10:17	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Pro Vercelli - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 36.75%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pro Vercelli
Italian Serie C Group A
26.09.26	Giana Erminio - Pro Vercelli	1:1 ✺
21.09.26	Trento - Pro Vercelli	4:0 ✺
17.09.26	Pro Vercelli - Alcione	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Treviso - Pro Vercelli	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Pro Vercelli - Folgore Caratese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLTLW
- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group A
27.09.26	Carpi - Union ArzignanoChiampo	0:3 ✺
20.09.26	Novara - Carpi	2:2 ✺
17.09.26	Carpi - Ospitaletto	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Carpi - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	AlbinoLeffe - Carpi	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Carpi - Pro Vercelli	2:1 penalties
06.11.19	Pro Vercelli - Carpi	1:0
Italian Serie B
19.03.18	Carpi - Pro Vercelli	2:0
21.10.17	Pro Vercelli - Carpi	0:0
04.04.17	Carpi - Pro Vercelli	0:0
05.11.16	Pro Vercelli - Carpi	0:0
28.02.15	Pro Vercelli - Carpi	0:0

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