Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 7

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Sandro Cabassi (Carpi)

Referee: Faye M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Carpi		Union ArzignanoChiampo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.95	3.10	2.20
	2.75	3.00	2.30
	3.21	3.18	2.34
	2.76	3.06	2.52	Watch
	3.05	3.10	2.30
	3.14	3.25	2.26	Watch
	2.95	3.05	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.5)	3.11 ↓ (3.22)	2.32 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carpi
30.9%

Draw
29.5%

Union ArzignanoChiampo
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

28.2%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

27.6%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carpi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carpi's form might have worsened.

Union ArzignanoChiampo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carpi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union ArzignanoChiampo than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Carpi - Union ArzignanoChiampo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Scacchetti A. (G) 4. Zagnoni D. (C) 19. Rossini M. 24. Desole F. 10. Casarini F. 8. Bagatti N. 6. Astrologo A. 7. Cecotti T. 23. Morosini L. 11. Puletto F. 18. Carcani T.	22. Manfrin F. (G) 31. De Santis E. 57. Milillo A. 23. Bernardi E. 2. Fosu M. J. 16. Moretti M. 30. Gatti C. 13. Cariolato F. 6. Lakti E. (C) 11. Penta M. 9. Mattioli A.
Substitutes
5. Figoli M. 21. Forapani M. 22. Gasperini T. (G) 27. Giva N. 17. Lombardi L. 2. Maggio S. 9. Montipo M. 16. Nesi L. 12. Perta A. A. (G) 83. Sall A. 25. Vaglica G. 90. Vitale V.	17. Castegnaro L. 12. Contarato E. (G) 21. Finizio D. 15. Gostimirovic M. 7. Lanzi E. 27. Nenna A. 10. Romio J.
Coaches
Cassani S.	Di Donato D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
26', (Penalty Awarded),
27', (Penalty Awarded),
32', 0 - 1, Mattioli A. ⚽, Fosu M. J. (A),
40', Desole F. 🟨,
44', 0 - 2, Penta M. ⚽,
45+4', Morosini L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Desole F. ↓, Montipo M. ↑,
46', Cecotti T. ↓, Lombardi L. ↑,
46', Bagatti N. ↓, Vitale V. ↑,
56', Astrologo A. 🟥,
60', Rossini M. 🟨,
63', Morosini L. ↓, Figoli M. ↑,
66', Lakti E. 🟨,
73', Lakti E. ↓, Lanzi E. ↑,
74', Penta M. ↓, Castegnaro L. ↑,
82', Fosu M. J. ↓, Nenna A. ↑,
82', Carcani T. ↓, Sall A. ↑,
90', Zagnoni D. 🟨,
90', Mattioli A. ↓, Romio J. ↑,
90+1', Cariolato F. ↓, Finizio D. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 3, Gatti C. ⚽, Lanzi E. (A),
90+6', Milillo A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 14th and 5th in the Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Carpi has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:0 (averaging 1.5:0 goals per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Arzignano	8	4	2	2	12:9	3	14
16	Carpi	8	1	3	4	10:17	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Carpi - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 36.32%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Union ArzignanoChiampo - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 35.51%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group A
20.09.26	Novara - Carpi	2:2 ✺
17.09.26	Carpi - Ospitaletto	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Carpi - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	AlbinoLeffe - Carpi	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Carpi - Pro Vercelli	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TTLWW
- Union ArzignanoChiampo
Italian Serie C Group A
20.09.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Renate	2:1 ✺
17.09.26	AlbinoLeffe - Union ArzignanoChiampo	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Desenzano Calvina	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Ospitaletto - Union ArzignanoChiampo	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Dolomiti Bellunesi	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
10.08.25	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Carpi	0:2
Italian Serie C Group B
10.11.19	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Carpi	0:1

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