Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 6

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Silvio Piola (Novara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255


	Novara		Carpi

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.90	3.25	3.50
	2.02	3.00	3.30
	1.96	3.30	4.26
	1.93	3.17	3.93	Watch
	1.93	3.10	4.20
	1.98	3.23	3.95	Watch
	1.96	3.25	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.09)	3.19 ↑ (3.02)	3.81 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novara
47%

Draw
28.9%

Carpi
24.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.1%

30.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

30.1%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Carpi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novara than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Novara - Carpi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Brancolini F. (G) 28. Cannavaro A. 58. Miceli M. 5. Lorenzini F. 71. D'Alessio L. 19. Collodel R. (C) 99. Basso G. 3. Lartey S. 77. Donadio C. 14. Romano M. 20. da Graca C.	1. Scacchetti A. (G) 19. Rossini M. 24. Desole F. 44. Gatti R. 10. Casarini F. (C) 8. Bagatti N. 6. Astrologo A. 7. Cecotti T. 90. Vitale V. 11. Puletto F. 18. Carcani T.
Substitutes
22. Anfossi P. (G) 36. Arboscello R. 1. Boseggia E. (G) 15. Khailoti O. 7. Lanini E. 11. Ledonne N. 35. Pregnolato L. 70. Valdesi A. 23. Zambataro E. 9. Zuppel D.	5. Figoli M. 21. Forapani M. 22. Gasperini T. (G) 27. Giva N. 17. Lombardi L. 2. Maggio S. 9. Montipo M. 23. Morosini L. 16. Nesi L. 12. Perta A. A. (G) 83. Sall A. 25. Vaglica G. 4. Zagnoni D. 14. Zarpellon L.
Coaches
Birindelli A.	Cassani S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Donadio C. ⚽, Romano M. (A),
4', Gatti R. ↓, Zagnoni D. ↑,
36', 1 - 1, Casarini F. ⚽, Zagnoni D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Cecotti T. ↓, Vaglica G. ↑,
46', Puletto F. ↓, Figoli M. ↑,
46', Lorenzini F. ↓, Khailoti O. ↑,
46', D'Alessio L. ↓, Zambataro E. ↑,
51', 1 - 2, Casarini F. (Penalty Awarded),
61', Donadio C. ↓, Zuppel D. ↑,
61', Cannavaro A. ↓, Valdesi A. ↑,
64', Miceli M. 🟨,
74', Figoli M. 🟨,
75', Carcani T. ↓, Montipo M. ↑,
77', Romano M. ↓, Ledonne N. ↑,
82', Valdesi A. 🟨,
83', Casarini F. ↓, Lombardi L. ↑,
90', 2 - 2, da Graca C. ⚽,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13th and 10th in the Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novara won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Recently, Carpi has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Novara holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Novara has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:6 (averaging 0.9:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Novara against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals (averaging 1.3:0.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Novara	10	2	4	4	10:14	-4	10
16	Carpi	10	2	3	5	14:20	-6	9

Last Results with these Odds

Novara - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.06%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
17.09.26	Lumezzane - Novara	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Novara - Pergolettese	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Renate - Novara	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
03.09.26	Novara - Livorno	0:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie C Group A
31.08.26	Novara - Folgore Caratese	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLWLT
- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group A
17.09.26	Carpi - Ospitaletto	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Carpi - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	AlbinoLeffe - Carpi	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Carpi - Pro Vercelli	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie C Group A
30.08.26	Carpi - Juventus U23	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs
13.07.20	Carpi - Novara	1:2
Italian Serie B
20.01.18	Novara - Carpi	1:0
26.08.17	Carpi - Novara	1:0
18.05.17	Carpi - Novara	2:0
30.12.16	Novara - Carpi	2:1
22.03.14	Novara - Carpi	1:0
14.10.13	Carpi - Novara	1:0

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