Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 9

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta (Osorno)


	Provincial Osorno		Real San Joaquín

	1	X	2
	1.77	3.5	3.7
	1.76	3.7	3.8
	1.74	3.96	3.87
	1.75	3.91	3.85	Watch
	1.74	3.78	3.86
	1.76	3.7	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (2.04)	3.76 ↑ (3.4)	3.81 ↑ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Provincial Osorno
51.9%

Draw
24.2%

Real San Joaquín
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

27%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

26.9%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Provincial Osorno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Provincial Osorno's performance.

Real San Joaquín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Provincial Osorno than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Provincial Osorno that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real San Joaquín than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Provincial Osorno - Real San Joaquín Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matamala D. (G) 4. Ambiado A. 9. Bielkiewicz D. 20. Castro G. 8. Gutierrez J. 32. Lauler G. 29. Meneses L. 10. Orellana M. 14. Pezoa M. D. A. 33. Sanguinetti F. 18. Suazo Y.	12. Hartard E. (G) 5. Abarca L. 9. Barahona F. 14. Duarte J. 8. Maulen J. 4. Munoz D. 6. Munoz I. 17. Perez L. 20. Pino T. 7. Pizarro D. 19. Reyes F.
Substitutes
11. Ayala Rodriguez S. A. 12. Faundez H. (G) 7. Fuenzalida R. 31. Maureira M. 23. Melo B. 25. Namoncura S. 2. Vicencio D.	2. Araya V. 15. Cabrera V. 10. Carvajal M. 11. Duran F. 18. Marquez B. 1. Reyes B. (G) 16. Ugarte J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Orellana M. ⚽,
43', 2 - 0, Pezoa M. D. A. ⚽,
45+2', 3 - 0, Castro G. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', Duarte J. ↓, Duran F. ↑,
57', Barahona F. ↓, Carvajal M. ↑,
58', Pezoa M. D. A. 🟨,
65', Pezoa M. D. A. ↓, Maureira M. ↑,
65', Sanguinetti F. ↓, Namoncura S. ↑,
66', Orellana M. ↓, Ayala Rodriguez S. A. ↑,
68', 4 - 0, Bielkiewicz D. ⚽,
74', 🟨,
80', 5 - 0, Bielkiewicz D. ⚽,
81', 🟨,
81', Abarca L. 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 11 and 8).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Provincial Osorno is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Provincial Osorno won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 2.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Provincial Osorno won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Provincial Osorno
Chilean Segunda Division
03.05.25	San Antonio Unido - Provincial Osorno	1:2 ✺
17.04.25	Deportes Linares - Provincial Osorno	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Provincial Osorno - Concón National	1:3 ✺
29.03.25	Provincial Ovalle - Provincial Osorno	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Provincial Osorno - Trasandino de Los Andes	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLLLW
- Real San Joaquín
Chilean Segunda Division
04.05.25	Real San Joaquín - Trasandino de Los Andes	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Real San Joaquín - Brujas Salamanca	2:1 ✺
07.04.25	Deportes Rengo - Real San Joaquín	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	San Antonio Unido - Real San Joaquín	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Real San Joaquín - Deportes Puerto Montt	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Segunda Division
20.10.24	Provincial Osorno - Real San Joaquín	3:2
26.05.24	Real San Joaquín - Provincial Osorno	3:3
26.08.23	Real San Joaquín - Provincial Osorno	0:2
23.04.23	Provincial Osorno - Real San Joaquín	2:1

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