Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Cuauhtémoc (Puebla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Puebla		Tigres UANL

	1	X	2
	4	3.5	1.86	Watch
	4.4	3.75	1.72
	3.7	3.55	1.92	Watch
	3.81	3.72	1.99
	3.68	3.71	1.96	Watch
	3.4	3.3	1.85
	3.66	3.55	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.81 ↓ (5)	3.58 ↓ (3.58)	1.89 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Puebla
24.5%

Draw
26.1%

Tigres UANL
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.3%

25.5%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

24.6%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puebla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Puebla's performance.

Tigres UANL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tigres UANL might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Puebla that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tigres UANL could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.9%	17.6%	76.5%

Puebla - Tigres UANL Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Puebla will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Tigres will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tigres: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Tigres (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tigres UANL will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Tigres (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Gutierrez D. (G) 12. Moreno I. 192. Navarro E. 4. Vargas J. 7. Monarrez F. 3. Rey L. 26. Velasco K. 6. Diaz N. (C) 16. Ramirez A. 15. Guerra E. 11. Gomez E.	1. Guzman N. (G) 14. Garza J. 23. Romulo 27. Angulo J. 32. Lorona V. 6. Vigon J. 5. Araujo C. 7. Correa A. 11. Brunetta J. (C) 20. Flores M. 17. Aguirre R.
Substitutes
32. Araos A. 22. Baltazar C. 195. de la Rosa A. 18. Gamarra A. 27. Garnica B. 17. Lozano E. 24. Organista A. 20. Pachuca Martinez J. R. 33. Rodriguez J. (G) 5. Torres U.	10. Gignac A. 77. Herrera O. 28. Joaquim 16. Lainez D. 19. Lopez I. 2. Reyes F. 25. Rodriguez F. (G) 35. Rodriguez O. 30. Sanchez Guevara D. A. 4. Sanchez J.
Coaches
Espigares A.	Pizarro G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+1', 1 - 0, Gomez E. ⚽, Guerra E. (A),
45+3', Lorona V. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Vigon J. ↓, Lainez D. ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Guerra E. ⚽,
60', Flores M. ↓, Gignac A. ↑,
60', Araujo C. ↓, Joaquim ↑,
62', Lorona V. ↓, Herrera O. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Brunetta J. (Penalty Awarded),
71', Guerra E. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
71', Ramirez A. ↓, Organista A. ↑,
82', Navarro E. ↓, Pachuca Martinez J. R. ↑,
82', Gomez E. ↓, Lozano E. ↑,
82', Angulo J. ↓, Sanchez Guevara D. A. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Baltazar C. ⚽, Velasco K. (A),
88', Moreno I. ↓, Garnica B. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Tigres is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Puebla: Castillo R. (Injury) Cavallini L. (Knee Injury) Maestro I. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Tigres: Farfan M. (Injury) Gignac A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Puebla: Navarro E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Tigres: Gorriaran F. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:37. (average 0.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Puebla won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:9. (average 1.1:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Puebla	11	4	3	4	12:13	-1	15
11	Tigres UANL	11	3	4	4	13:15	-2	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Puebla FC
Mexican Liga MX
28.02.26	Atlético San Luis - Puebla	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Puebla - Club América	0:4 ✺
13.02.26	Puebla - UNAM	2:3 ✺
06.02.26	Tijuana - Puebla	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Puebla - Toluca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WLLTT
- Tigres UANL
Mexican Liga MX
28.02.26	Club América - Tigres UANL	1:4 ✺
20.02.26	Tigres UANL - Pachuca	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Cruz Azul - Tigres UANL	2:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
10.02.26	Tigres UANL - Forge	4:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
06.02.26	Tigres UANL - Santos Laguna	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
08.08.25	Tigres UANL - Puebla	7:0
04.04.25	Puebla - Tigres UANL	0:0
05.10.24	Tigres UANL - Puebla	1:0
CONCACAF League Cup
31.07.24	Tigres UANL - Puebla	2:1
Mexican Liga MX
29.03.24	Puebla - Tigres UANL	2:3
03.12.23	Tigres UANL - Puebla	3:0
30.11.23	Puebla - Tigres UANL	2:2

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