Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 30 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Cuauhtémoc (Puebla) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Garcia O. M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Mexico	21:00	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Disney+, ESPN 2
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Usa	23:00	TUDN App, TUDN


	Puebla		UNAM

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.6	1.86
	2.95	3.50	2.20
	3.7	3.6	1.88
	4.05	3.76	1.95
	3.68	3.62	1.98	Watch
	4	3.65	1.91
	3.97	3.66	1.94	Watch
	3.8	3.6	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↑ (2.8)	3.62 ↑ (3.4)	1.96 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Puebla
25.3%

Draw
26.2%

UNAM
48.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.8%

27%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

26.8%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Puebla's form might have worsened.

UNAM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting UNAM's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Puebla, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for UNAM, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Puebla - UNAM Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. UNAM will win (votes: 13 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for UNAM: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. UNAM (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Gutierrez D. (C) 12. Moreno I. 5. Almada F. 4. Vargas J. 7. Monarrez F. 24. Organista A. 14. Armenta E. 27. Garnica B. 20. Pachuca Martinez J. R. 8. Moreno Villegas O. F. 9. Hernandez L.	1. Navas K. (C) 7. Lopez R. 6. Nathan Silva 5. Duarte R. 2. Bennevendo P. 21. Antuna U. 8. Carrasquilla A. 45. Vite P. 10. Huerta Valera C. S. 31. Morales R. 23. Juninho
Substitutes
22. Baltazar C. 3. Herrera A. 2. Leyva A. 34. Lucas Camilo 19. Maestro I. 29. Mustre E. 33. Rodriguez J. (G) 10. Tomas M. 26. Velasco K. 15. Villa O.	77. Angulo A. 18. Arteaga V. 34. Azuaje A. 14. Herrera L. 35. Lara P. (G) 24. Leone T. 30. Lopez S. 15. Luna I. 22. Medina A. 19. Rivas J.
Coaches
Espinoza G.	Solari E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Juninho ⚽, Lopez R. (A),
23', 1 - 1, Moreno Villegas O. F. ⚽, Hernandez L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Garnica B. ↓, Velasco K. ↑,
55', Hernandez L. ↓, Maestro I. ↑,
61', Carrasquilla A. 🟨,
72', Huerta Valera C. S. ↓, Arteaga V. ↑,
73', Vite P. 🟨,
76', Moreno Villegas O. F. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
82', Pachuca Martinez J. R. ↓, Leyva A. ↑,
84', Antuna U. ↓, Medina A. ↑,
85', Duarte R. ↓, Angulo A. ↑,
88', Vite P. ↓, Herrera L. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Angulo A. ⚽,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 14th and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 0.

Puebla is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by UNAM have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

UNAM is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Puebla: Ramirez A. (Red Card).

Confirmed absences for UNAM: Calderon C. (Injury) Cordova S. (Knee Injury) Macias J. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Puebla: Baltazar C. (Injury) Sanabria S. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Puebla has recorded 6 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:33 (averaging 1.2:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Puebla against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 12:15 goals (averaging 1.2:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	UNAM Pumas	15	5	5	5	22:24	-2	20
14	Puebla	15	4	4	7	17:23	-6	16

Outrights of Mexican Liga MX for now

UNAM Pumas: 2.36% Puebla: 0.61%

Last Results with these Odds

UNAM - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.24%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Puebla FC
Mexican Liga MX
25.10.26	Atlas - Puebla	4:3 ✺
21.10.26	Puebla - Monterrey	1:4 ✺
16.10.26	Tijuana - Puebla	0:0 ✺
09.10.26	Puebla - Club León	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Tigres UANL - Puebla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLTTL
- UNAM Pumas
Mexican Liga MX
24.10.26	UNAM - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
21.10.26	Santos Laguna - UNAM	2:0 ✺
16.10.26	Atlante - UNAM	1:2 ✺
11.10.26	UNAM - Cruz Azul	3:3 ✺
27.09.26	UNAM - Atlético San Luis	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
13.02.26	Puebla - UNAM	2:3
24.08.25	UNAM - Puebla	0:0
07.03.25	Puebla - UNAM	1:3
17.09.24	UNAM - Puebla	1:0
11.02.24	UNAM - Puebla	3:0
22.09.23	Puebla - UNAM	0:2
05.03.23	UNAM - Puebla	2:4

Puebla - UNAM