Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Miguel Hidalgo (Pachuca de Soto)

Referee: Contreras Q. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Pachuca		Tigres UANL

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.5	2.4	Watch
	2.78	3.25	2.48	Watch
	2.87	3.35	2.59
	2.52	3.67	2.57	Watch
	2.74	3.32	2.42	Watch
	2.55	3.45	2.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.63)	3.42 ↓ (3.48)	2.5 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pachuca
34.9%

Draw
27.5%

Tigres UANL
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

26.8%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

26.7%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pachuca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Tigres UANL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	28.6%	42.9%

Pachuca - Tigres UANL Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Pachuca will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tigres will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tigres (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tigres (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Moreno C. (C) 12. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 4. Eduardo Bauermann 13. Berlanga J. 3. Aceves A. 26. Bautista A. 5. Pedraza P. 29. Kenedy 23. Quinones L. 8. Guzman V. 10. Valencia E.	1. Guzman N. (G) 20. Aquino J. 2. Joaquim 4. Sanchez J. 3. Farfan M. 23. Romulo 7. Correa A. 197. Sanchez Guevara D. A. 11. Brunetta J. 8. Gorriaran F. (C) 16. Lainez D.
Substitutes
184. Alfaro C. 99. Cadiz J. 41. Carvalho W. 31. Eulogio J. (G) 9. Hernandez I. 11. Idrissi O. 15. Luna I. 24. Rodriguez L. 14. Sanchez C. 32. Togni G.	22. Antuna U. 24. Flores M. 14. Garza J. 10. Gignac A. 33. Guerrero R. 77. Herrera O. 9. Ibanez N. 34. Parra B. 25. Rodriguez F. (G) 6. Vigon J.
Coaches
Lozano J.	Pizarro G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Pedraza P. 🟨,
37', Sanchez J. 🟨,
42', Aquino J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', Correa A. 🟨,
59', Sanchez Guevara D. A. ↓, Herrera O. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Brunetta J. ⚽,
63', Pedraza P. ↓, Carvalho W. ↑,
63', Guzman V. ↓, Idrissi O. ↑,
65', Aquino J. ↓, Garza J. ↑,
68', Farfan M. 🟨,
75', Valencia E. ↓, Cadiz J. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Kenedy ⚽,
78', 1 - 2, Lainez D. ⚽, Romulo (A),
80', Lainez D. 🟨,
81', Eduardo Bauermann 🟨,
85', Farfan M. 🟥,
85', Kenedy ↓, Togni G. ↑,
86', Berlanga J. ↓, Hernandez I. ↑,
89', Guerrero R. ↓, Lainez D. ↑,
90', Eduardo Bauermann 🟨,
90+5', Romulo 🟨,
90+6', Garza J. 🟨,
90+11', Idrissi O. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 1.

Pachuca has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tigres is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Pachuca: Aceves A. (Muscle Injury) Barreto S. D. (Red Card) Micolta A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Pachuca: Dominguez A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Tigres: Tapia F. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pachuca won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Pachuca - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.46%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX
18.10.25	Juárez - Pachuca	2:2 ✺
03.10.25	Necaxa - Pachuca	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Pachuca - Atlético San Luis	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Puebla - Pachuca	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Pachuca - Querétaro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWWTL
- Tigres UANL
Mexican Liga MX
17.10.25	Tigres UANL - Necaxa	5:3 ✺
04.10.25	Tigres UANL - Cruz Azul	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Querétaro - Tigres UANL	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Tigres UANL - Atlas	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	UNAM - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
15.04.25	Pachuca - Tigres UANL	0:0
26.10.24	Tigres UANL - Pachuca	2:1
CONCACAF League Cup
08.08.24	Tigres UANL - Pachuca	1:0
Mexican Liga MX
06.04.24	Tigres UANL - Pachuca	0:3
07.10.23	Pachuca - Tigres UANL	1:1
Mexican Campeon de Campeones
25.06.23	Pachuca - Tigres UANL	1:2
Mexican Liga MX
15.01.23	Tigres UANL - Pachuca	4:1

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