The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Puebla 16.2%
Draw 20.6%
Toluca 63.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
21.1%
23.5%
55.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
20.2%
22.5%
57.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (+4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-5.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
0%
100%
Puebla - Toluca Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 3 - 100%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH -0.5 - Toluca (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
28. Gutierrez D. (G) 20. Pachuca Martinez J. R. 5. Almada F. 4. Vargas J. (C) 7. Monarrez F. 21. Sanabria S. 27. Garnica B. 10. Tomas M. 24. Organista A. 22. Baltazar C. 19. Maestro I.
22. Garcia L. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 5. Romero F. 20. Gallardo J. (C) 16. Vinas F. 10. Angulo J. 8. Castro N. 26. Paulinho
Substitutes
14. Armenta E. 3. Herrera A. 25. Jurado H. 2. Leyva A. 34. Lucas Camilo 12. Moreno I. 8. Moreno Villegas O. F. 16. Ramirez A. 33. Rodriguez J. (G) 15. Villa O.
184. Aceves S. 24. Arce F. 12. Beltran R. (G) 3. Briseno A. 29. Diaz Price J. 7. Guzman V. 11. Helinho 13. Luan 15. Perez P. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Espinoza G.
Mohamed A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Romero F. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
57', Maestro I. 🟨,
59', del Villar E. ↓, Helinho ↑,
59', Angulo J. ↓, Diaz Price J. ↑,
69', 0 - 1, Pachuca Martinez J. R. (Own goal),
72', Baltazar C. ↓, Jurado H. ↑,
75', Garnica B. ↓, Moreno Villegas O. F. ↑,
77', Vinas F. ↓, Luan ↑,
90', Bruno Mendez 🟨,
90+4', Monarrez F. ↓, Villa O. ↑,
90+4', Organista A. ↓, Herrera A. ↑,
90+4', Pachuca Martinez J. R. ↓, Moreno I. ↑,
90+6', Paulinho ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
Preview
Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 0.
Recent performances by Puebla have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Toluca is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Puebla has had a series of away games.
In this match, Toluca is considered a favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:31. (average 1.3:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Puebla won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.3:1).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
2
Toluca
11
6
2
3
25:15
10
20
9
Puebla
11
4
3
4
12:13
-1
15
Last Results with these Odds
Toluca - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.48%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Gutierrez D. (G) 
Almada F. 
Vargas J. (C) 
Sanabria S. 
Tomas M. 
Paulinho 
Lucas Camilo 
Arce F. 
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