Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 30

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach (Niepołomice)

Referee: Kuzma L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball


	Puszcza Niepołomice		Pogoń Szczecin

	1	X	2
	4.5	4	1.67	Watch
	4.6	3.8	1.68
	4.5	4	1.67	Watch
	4.76	4.09	1.71
	4.73	3.93	1.71	Watch
	4.6	3.6	1.7
	4.56	4.05	1.69	Watch
	4.5	4	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.59 ↑ (3.5)	3.93 ↑ (3.5)	1.69 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Puszcza Niepołomice
20.4%

Draw
23.9%

Pogoń Szczecin
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puszcza Niepołomice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Puszcza Niepołomice's form might have worsened.

Pogoń Szczecin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pogoń Szczecin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Puszcza Niepołomice, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pogoń Szczecin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	5.9%	64.7%

Puszcza Niepołomice - Pogoń Szczecin Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Puszcza will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pogoń Szczecin: 42% – 87.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Pogoń Szczecin (1.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pogoń Szczecin will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Pogoń Szczecin (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Komar K. (G) 8. Mrozinski P. 4. Szymonowicz D. 3. Yakuba R. 33. Abramowicz D. 19. Stec J. 5. Stepien K. (C) 22. Craciun A. 10. Tomalski H. 7. Klimek A. 35. Kosidis M.	77. Cojocaru V. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. 68. Loncar D. 4. Leo Borges 32. Koutris L. 21. Gamboa J. 15. Wedrychowski M. 8. Ulvestad F. 19. Lukasiak K. 11. Grosicki K. (C) 9. Koulouris E.
Substitutes
63. Barkovsky G. 24. Blagaic J. 11. Cholewiak M. 31. Perchel M. (G) 17. Radecki M. 67. Revenco I. 18. Siplak M. 27. Solowiej L. 12. Stepien M.	31. Kaminski K. (G) 13. Keramitsis D. 46. Klukowski A. 27. Korczakowski O. 17. Lis J. 25. Lisowski W. 51. Paryzek P. 61. Smolinski K. 35. Wojciechowski M.
Coaches
Tulacz T.	Kolendowicz R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Koulouris E. ⚽, Lukasiak K. (A),
12', Craciun A. 🟨,
25', Kosidis M. ↓, Barkovsky G. ↑,
33', Loncar D. 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Mrozinski P. ⚽, Barkovsky G. (A),
45+1', 1 - 2, Koulouris E. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 3)
46', Loncar D. ↓, Lisowski W. ↑,
46', Tomalski H. ↓, Cholewiak M. ↑,
46', Yakuba R. ↓, Radecki M. ↑,
46', 2 - 2, Szymonowicz D. ⚽,
48', Stec J. 🟨,
51', 3 - 2, Klimek A. ⚽, Stepien K. (A),
54', 4 - 2, Klimek A. ⚽, Barkovsky G. (A),
59', 4 - 3, Koulouris E. (Pen),
66', Barkovsky G. 🟨,
68', Grosicki K. ↓, Korczakowski O. ↑,
68', Ulvestad F. ↓, Smolinski K. ↑,
70', 4 - 4, Wedrychowski M. ⚽, Koulouris E. (A),
72', Wahlqvist L. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
74', Leo Borges 🟥,
74', Barkovsky G. 🟨,
78', Stec J. ↓, Revenco I. ↑,
78', Klimek A. ↓, Stepien M. ↑,
87', Koutris L. ↓, Klukowski A. ↑,
90+4', 4 - 5, Koulouris E. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 4).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Puszcza won 0.

Puszcza is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Pogoń Szczecin is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Pogoń Szczecin is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Puszcza won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 2:12 (average 0.3:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Puszcza won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1:7 (average 0.3:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Puszcza Niepołomice
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.04.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Radomiak Radom	2:2 ✺
12.04.25	GKS Katowice - Puszcza Niepołomice	3:1 ✺
07.04.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
01.04.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Pogoń Szczecin	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.03.25	Cracovia - Puszcza Niepołomice	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLTLL
- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.04.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Raków Częstochowa	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Piast Gliwice - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Pogoń Szczecin - GKS Katowice	4:0 ✺
Polish Cup
01.04.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Pogoń Szczecin	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.03.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
01.04.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Pogoń Szczecin	0:3
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.10.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:1
06.05.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:0
04.11.23	Puszcza Niepołomice - Pogoń Szczecin	0:2
Polish Cup
29.11.16	Pogoń Szczecin - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0
26.10.16	Puszcza Niepołomice - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2

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