What is the expert prediction for Pogoń Szczecin vs GKS Katowice?

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Pogoń Szczecin vs GKS Katowice Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, May 23, 2026)

Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 34

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera (Szczecin)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA, Fanatiz


	Pogoń Szczecin		GKS Katowice

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.6	2.45	Watch
	2.75	3.8	2.25
	2.45	3.75	2.48	Watch
	2.48	3.97	2.62
	2.67	3.84	2.42	Watch
	2.4	3.7	2.5
	2.45	3.67	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.05)	3.76 ↓ (3.78)	2.46 ↓ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Szczecin
37.2%

Draw
24.8%

GKS Katowice
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

25.1%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

26.9%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Szczecin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pogoń Szczecin's form might have worsened.

GKS Katowice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting GKS Katowice's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pogoń Szczecin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for GKS Katowice than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for GKS Katowice, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	0%	76.9%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). GKS Katowice will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for GKS Katowice: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Kaminski K. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. (C) 13. Keramitsis D. 41. Szalai At. 23. Mendy B. 25. Agger M. 8. Ulvestad F. 6. Bieganski J. 18. Mukairu P. 10. Cuic F. 90. Greenwood S.	12. Straczek R. (G) 30. Czerwinski A. 4. Jedrych A. (C) 6. Klemenz L. 23. Wasielewski M. 22. Milewski S. 77. Kowalczyk M. 8. Galan B. 15. Markovic E. 99. Zrelak A. 27. Nowak B.
Substitutes
3. Acosta K. 15. Ali H. 24. Angielski K. 20. Brzyski I. 30. Czaplinski J. 11. Grosicki K. 32. Koutris L. 47. Lawa N. 4. Leo Borges 33. Peskovic A. (G) 61. Smolinski K.	11. Blad A. 97. Jirka E. 1. Kudla D. (G) 19. Lukasiak K. 14. Olsen M. 26. Rasak D. 80. Shkurin I. 70. Wdowiak M. 10. Wedrychowski M.
Coaches
Thomasberg T.	Gorak R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Cuic F. ⚽, Keramitsis D. (A),
42', Bieganski J. 🟨,
45+2', Straczek R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Milewski S. ↓, Rasak D. ↑,
46', Markovic E. ↓, Wdowiak M. ↑,
51', Mendy B. 🟨,
57', Mendy B. ↓, Koutris L. ↑,
57', Bieganski J. ↓, Acosta K. ↑,
58', Zrelak A. ↓, Shkurin I. ↑,
61', Czerwinski A. 🟨,
64', Greenwood S. ↓, Lawa N. ↑,
65', Mukairu P. ↓, Grosicki K. ↑,
66', Czerwinski A. ↓, Wedrychowski M. ↑,
72', Wahlqvist L. ↓, Ali H. ↑,
78', Kowalczyk M. ↓, Blad A. ↑,
90+2', Kaminski K. 🟥,
90+7', 1 - 1, Wedrychowski M. ⚽, Galan B. (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

Recent performances by Pogoń Szczecin have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

GKS Katowice is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pogoń Szczecin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Cojocaru V. (Yellow Cards) Molnar R. (Knee Injury) Pozo J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in GKS Katowice: Bosch J. (Pelvis Injury) Jaroszek B. (Injury) Paluszek A. (Knee Injury) Rejczyk F. (Injury) Trepka L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Szczecin won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Pogoń Szczecin won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	GKS Katowice	34	14	8	12	51:45	6	50
9	Pogon Szczecin	34	13	6	15	47:49	-2	45

Last Results with these Odds

Pogoń Szczecin - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 46.34%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.05.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1 ✺
09.05.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Pogoń Szczecin	3:2 ✺
03.05.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Wisła Płock	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	Cracovia - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWTL
- GKS Katowice
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.05.26	GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2 ✺
10.05.26	Piast Gliwice - GKS Katowice	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	GKS Katowice - Termalica Nieciecza	5:1 ✺
25.04.26	Korona Kielce - GKS Katowice	1:1 ✺
17.04.26	GKS Katowice - Motor Lublin	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
29.11.25	GKS Katowice - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0
Club Friendly
25.06.25	Pogoń Szczecin - GKS Katowice	1:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
06.04.25	Pogoń Szczecin - GKS Katowice	4:0
27.09.24	GKS Katowice - Pogoń Szczecin	3:1
Polish Cup
26.09.18	GKS Katowice - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 penalties

Pogoń Szczecin - GKS Katowice: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide