Match Info

CHINA: SUPER LEAGUE - ROUND 16

Date: 12 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium (Qingdao)


	Qingdao Hainiu		Shenzhen

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.2	5.5	Watch
	1.55	3.75	5.5
	1.52	3.9	5.8
	1.56	4.14	6.01
	1.5	3.6	5.5
	1.55	4.15	5.85
	1.57	3.9	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.32)	3.95 ↓ (4.9)	5.65 ↓ (9.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qingdao Hainiu
60.1%

Draw
23.5%

Shenzhen
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.3%

19.2%

9.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

10.1%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qingdao Hainiu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Qingdao Hainiu's form might have worsened.

Shenzhen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shenzhen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qingdao Hainiu than the current prediction. (-22.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Qingdao Hainiu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shenzhen than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	9.1%	27.3%

Qingdao Hainiu - Shenzhen Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Qingdao Hainiu will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Shenzhen will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Qingdao Hainiu: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Mou Pengfei (G) 31. Andrejevic A. 5. Sha Yibo (C) 4. Liu Junshuai 2. Zhang Wei 20. Peng Xinli 32. Long Wei 24. Xu Dong 13. Tabekou S. 9. Brown F. 19. Song Wenjie	1. Wei Minzhe (G) 30. Huang Ruifeng 26. Yuan Mincheng 11. Zhang Yuan 4. Jiang Zhipeng (C) 5. Tian Z. 19. Xu Yue 16. Zheng Dalun 21. Zhang Yuan 34. Ghojaehmet Shahzat 18. Chen Xiangyu
Substitutes
12. Chen Chunxin 18. Hu Ming 29. Liu Chaoyang 6. Liu Weicheng 8. Ma Xingyu 11. Sun Xipeng 23. Sun Xu 25. Wang Chien-Ming 15. Xu Yang 27. Zheng Long 30. Zhong Jinbao	36. Chen Guoliang 9. Donkin W. 33. Du Yuezheng 37. Hu Jiajin 32. Ji Jibao (G) 20. Liu Yue 40. Lu Jiaqiang 25. Mi Haolun 6. Pei Shuai 13. Xu Haofeng 28. Zhou Xin
Coaches
Gomez A.	Chen Tao

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Jia League and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Qingdao Hainiu won 0.

Recent matches Qingdao Hainiu is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Shenzhen has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Qingdao Hainiu is absolute favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Qingdao Hainiu won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 16-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Qingdao Hainiu won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Qingdao Hainiu
Chinese Super League
07.07.23	Qingdao Hainiu - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	1:1 ✺
02.07.23	Dalian Pro - Qingdao Hainiu	1:1 ✺
28.06.23	Tianjin Jinmen Tiger - Qingdao Hainiu	3:2 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
23.06.23	Dandong Tengyue - Qingdao Hainiu	1:2 penalties ✺
Chinese Super League
08.06.23	Qingdao Hainiu - Shanghai Shenhua	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TTLWL
- Shenzhen FC
Chinese Super League
08.07.23	Beijing Guoan - Shenzhen	5:0 ✺
03.07.23	Shenzhen - Wuhan Three Towns	1:3 ✺
29.06.23	Shenzhen - Chengdu Rongcheng	0:3 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
25.06.23	Nantong Haimen Codion - Shenzhen	2:1 penalties ✺
Chinese Super League
08.06.23	Changchun Yatai - Shenzhen	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
16.04.23	Shenzhen - Qingdao Hainiu	2:1
27.07.21	Qingdao Hainiu - Shenzhen	1:4
26.04.21	Shenzhen - Qingdao Hainiu	0:0
10.11.20	Shenzhen - Qingdao Hainiu	2:1
06.11.20	Qingdao Hainiu - Shenzhen	0:2
Chinese Jia League
26.08.18	Qingdao Hainiu - Shenzhen	0:1
14.04.18	Shenzhen - Qingdao Hainiu	2:1

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