Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 16

Date: 26 May 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes (Quilmes)

Referee: Gimenez P. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Quilmes		San Martín de Tucumán

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.88	3.9	Watch
	2.2	2.75	3.6
	2.22	2.8	3.7	Watch
	2.31	2.78	4.1
	2.24	2.79	3.84	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.7
	2.23	2.85	3.71	Watch
	2.22	2.8	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.2)	2.81 ↓ (2.9)	3.78 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Quilmes
42%

Draw
33.3%

San Martín de Tucumán
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

31.9%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

32.5%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Quilmes have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

San Martín de Tucumán has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	83.3%	8.3%

Quilmes - San Martín de Tucumán Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Quilmes will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). San Martin T will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 83.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 62.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - San Martin T (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. San Martin T (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Glellel E. (G) 4. Torrent F. 2. Aranda G. 6. Flores F. 3. Perez F. 8. Roseti M. 5. Ramirez I. 11. Allende L. 10. Machado C. 7. Coronel J. 9. Herrera E.	1. Sand D. (G) 4. Murillo F. 2. Orellana J. 6. Rodriguez G. 3. Zuliani H. 8. Garcia M. 5. Abregu G. 11. Esquivel J. 10. Cuevas J. 7. Vera U. 9. Pino M.
Substitutes
13. Bindella A. 20. Capano J. 18. Enrique M. 12. Herrera L. 14. Juarez M. 17. Mino M. 15. Postigo J. 19. Schultz E. 16. Vazquez G.	16. Cainelli N. 12. Carrizo N. (G) 17. Cisnero A. 13. Perez M. 18. Prokop A. 14. Quiroz F. 15. Soraire J. 19. Taboada L. 20. Veron M.
Coaches
Rondina S.	Martos A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Garcia M. 🟨,
34', Torrent F. 🟨,
43', Perez F. 🟨,
45+1', Murillo F. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Coronel J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Orellana J. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Cuevas J. ⚽,
60', Perez M. 🟨,
62', Coronel J. ↓, Capano J. ↑,
70', Murillo F. ↓, Cainelli N. ↑,
74', Cuevas J. ↓, Soraire J. ↑,
75', Vera U. ↓, Cisnero A. ↑,
76', Torrent F. ↓, Mino M. ↑,
76', Roseti M. ↓, Enrique M. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Soraire J. ⚽,
87', Esquivel J. ↓, Quiroz F. ↑,
90+3', Allende L. ↓, Schultz E. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 1.

Quilmes has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

San Martin T has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Quilmes will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Quilmes won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.2:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Quilmes - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.97%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
18.05.25	Güemes - Quilmes	0:0 ✺
10.05.25	Quilmes - Patronato Parana	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Quilmes - Club Almagro	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	San Miguel - Quilmes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTLLT
- San Martín de Tucumán
Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.05.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Racing de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - San Martín de Tucumán	3:1 ✺
02.05.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Colegiales	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Arsenal Sarandí - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	San Martín de Tucumán - All Boys	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
22.07.24	Quilmes - San Martín de Tucumán	1:2
04.03.24	San Martín de Tucumán - Quilmes	0:0
Copa Argentina
27.04.22	Quilmes - San Martín de Tucumán	2:0
Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.04.22	Quilmes - San Martín de Tucumán	2:2
06.11.21	Quilmes - San Martín de Tucumán	0:0
12.07.21	San Martín de Tucumán - Quilmes	1:2
14.10.19	Quilmes - San Martín de Tucumán	1:4

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