Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 32

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Ciudadela (Tucuman)


	San Martín de Tucumán		Gimnasia y Tiro

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.25	5.5	Watch
	1.66	3.25	5.25
	1.72	3.1	5.1	Watch
	1.76	3.2	6.28
	1.72	3.31	5.5	Watch
	1.73	3	6.2
	1.73	3.25	5.49	Watch
	1.71	3.15	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.99)	3.19 ↑ (2.97)	5.54 ↑ (4.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Martín de Tucumán
54.1%

Draw
29.1%

Gimnasia y Tiro
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

31.5%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

35.1%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Martín de Tucumán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Martín de Tucumán's performance.

Gimnasia y Tiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia y Tiro than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

San Martín de Tucumán - Gimnasia y Tiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. San Martin T will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Gimnasia y Tiro will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for San Martin T: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. San Martin T (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sand D. (G) 4. Salazar V. 2. Rodriguez G. 6. Parnisari E. 3. Gallardo N. 8. Graneros A. 5. Brinone S. 10. Carabajal G. 11. Cabrera B. 7. Cisnero A. 9. Veron M.	1. Cosentino F. (G) 4. Galetto J. 2. Guanini M. 6. Diaz G. 3. Montoya L. 7. Rocca J. 5. Sivetti F. 8. Banega T. 10. Rinaldi N. 9. Gordillo L. 11. Rojas F.
Substitutes
13. Ayala R. 15. Castro N. 14. Galvan A. 18. Garcia M. 12. Manganelli N. (G) 17. Monroy G. 16. Rodriguez L. 20. Valdez J. P. 19. Veliez A.	19. Birge M. 17. Capano J. 15. Chaves I. F. 20. Contin N. 18. Montoya W. 13. Oviedo J. C. 12. Papaleo J. (G) 14. Tallura A. 16. Villarreal R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Rinaldi N. 🟨,
19', Sand D. 🟨,
28', Parnisari E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Rocca J. ↓, Capano J. ↑,
68', 1 - 0, Brinone S. ⚽,
69', Cisnero A. ↓, Veliez A. ↑,
73', Banega T. ↓, Montoya W. ↑,
73', Rojas F. ↓, Contin N. ↑,
73', Rinaldi N. ↓, Birge M. ↑,
82', Gallardo N. 🟨,
86', Carabajal G. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
90', Veron M. ↓, Galvan A. ↑,
90+5', Cabrera B. 🟨,

Preview

San Martin T has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Gimnasia y Tiro shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Gimnasia y Tiro may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

San Martin T carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, San Martin T has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:3 (averaging 0.3:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for San Martin T against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals.

Last Results with these Odds

San Martín de Tucumán - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.98%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Gimnasia y Tiro - the odds 4.34 are the expected chance of winning is 21.54%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Martín de Tucumán
Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.09.26	Gimnasia Jujuy - San Martín de Tucumán	2:2 ✺
19.09.26	Atlético de Rafaela - San Martín de Tucumán	4:2 ✺
13.09.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Agropecuario Argentino	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Tristán Suárez - San Martín de Tucumán	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Güemes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLWLT
- Gimnasia y Tiro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.09.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Atlético de Rafaela	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Agropecuario Argentino - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Tristán Suárez	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Güemes - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:3 ✺
28.08.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Chacarita Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.05.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - San Martín de Tucumán	1:0
25.07.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - San Martín de Tucumán	2:0
23.03.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0

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