Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 26

Date: 19 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes (Quilmes)

Referee: Ceballos D. (Arg)


	Quilmes		Villa Dálmine

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.8	7.5
	1.46	4	6.25
	1.45	4.1	7.5
	1.47	4.17	7.62
	1.47	3.6	7
	1.49	4.05	7.2
	1.48	3.9	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.33)	3.95 ↓ (4.38)	7.12 ↓ (9.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Quilmes
63.3%

Draw
23.6%

Villa Dálmine
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

21%

9.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.1%

20.2%

9.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Quilmes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Quilmes's form might have worsened.

Villa Dálmine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Quilmes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villa Dálmine than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

Quilmes - Villa Dálmine Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Quilmes will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Villa Dálmine will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Quilmes: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Glellel E. (G) 17. Batista A. 2. Diaz G. 6. Giampaoli R. 3. Erquiaga I. 15. Brizuela E. 8. Ramirez I. 18. Lattanzio C. 19. Anselmo F. 10. Gimenez M. 9. Castro F.	1. Kletnicki C. (G) 4. Romat N. 2. Giacopuzzi F. 6. Cosciuc F. 3. Alcaraz A. 5. Arzura J. 8. Gargiulo V. 11. Tello L. 7. Olivera M. 9. Molina J. 10. Molina F.
Substitutes
14. Bindella A. 11. Bonetto J. . Calello A. . Capano J. 16. Postigo J. 7. Sanabria M. 20. Sandoval T. 13. Tevez F.	19. Caramuto M. 14. Cardozo D. 16. Gaitan N. 17. Gimenez J. 18. Jofre L. 15. Perez R. 20. Ramirez B. 13. Rosso F. 12. Salerno F. (G)
Coaches
Sciacqua M.	Gareca F.

Preview

Recent matches Quilmes is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Villa Dálmine is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Quilmes is indisputable favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Quilmes won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Quilmes won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.08.23	Deportivo Madryn - Quilmes	0:0 ✺
29.07.23	Quilmes - Atlético de Rafaela	1:2 ✺
22.07.23	Estudiantes de Caseros - Quilmes	1:1 ✺
15.07.23	Quilmes - Brown de Adrogué	1:1 ✺
09.07.23	Aldosivi - Quilmes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TLTTW
- Villa Dálmine
Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.08.23	Villa Dálmine - Gimnasia Jujuy	2:1 ✺
30.07.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Villa Dálmine	3:0 ✺
23.07.23	Villa Dálmine - Deportivo Riestra	1:2 ✺
16.07.23	Racing de Córdoba - Villa Dálmine	0:0 ✺
08.07.23	Villa Dálmine - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
08.04.23	Villa Dálmine - Quilmes	0:0
27.07.22	Villa Dálmine - Quilmes	2:0
02.11.19	Quilmes - Villa Dálmine	1:2
20.10.18	Villa Dálmine - Quilmes	1:1
23.09.17	Quilmes - Villa Dálmine	1:0

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