Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	RB Leipzig		Köln

	1	X	2
	1.9	4	3.75	Watch
	1.95	3.95	3.55	Watch
	1.94	4	3.91
	1.89	4.03	3.49	Watch
	1.88	4.05	3.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.63)	4.01 ↓ (4.33)	3.74 ↓ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
50.3%

Draw
24%

Köln
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

22%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

24.1%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that RB Leipzig's form might have worsened.

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Köln's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for RB Leipzig, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Köln, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.1%	5.1%	11.9%

RB Leipzig - Köln Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Köln (2.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - RB Leipzig (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - RB Leipzig (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - RB Leipzig (2.06) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Köln (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Köln (2.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (48 of 58 users predict this - 82.76%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.04% – 92.48%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (22 of 22 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 27 - 81.8%). Köln (votes: 6 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 20. Ouedraogo A. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 9. Bakayoko J. 40. Romulo Cardoso 49. Diomande Y.	1. Schwabe M. (C) 2. Schmied J. 4. Hubers T. 5. Krauss T. 28. Sebulonsen S. 18. Johannesson I. 6. Martel E. 30. Bulter M. 29. Thielmann J. 16. Kaminski J. 7. Waldschmidt L.
Substitutes
6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 27. Gomis T. 11. Harder C. 44. Kampl K. 33. Maksimovic A. 19. Nedeljkovic K. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 36. Werner T.	9. Ache R. 13. El Mala S. 3. Heintz D. 8. Huseinbasic D. 11. Kainz F. 32. Lund K. 37. Maina L. 39. Ozkacar C. 20. Zieler R. (G)
Coaches
Werner O.	Kwasniok L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Ouedraogo A. ⚽, Romulo Cardoso (A),
23', 1 - 1, Thielmann J. ⚽, Martel E. (A),
44', 2 - 1, Romulo Cardoso ⚽, Baumgartner C. (A),
45+3', Martel E. 🟨,
45+4', 3 - 1, Raum D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bulter M. ↓, El Mala S. ↑,
58', Ouedraogo A. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
59', Martel E. ↓, Huseinbasic D. ↑,
59', Waldschmidt L. ↓, Ache R. ↑,
59', Thielmann J. ↓, Maina L. ↑,
70', Baku R. 🟨,
73', Sebulonsen S. ↓, Kainz F. ↑,
80', Baku R. ↓, Harder C. ↑,
80', Bakayoko J. ↓, Nedeljkovic K. ↑,
90+2', Diomande Y. ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,
90+2', Baumgartner C. ↓, Kampl K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 3.

In recent matches, RB Leipzig has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Köln is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, RB Leipzig has had a series of away games.

In this match, RB Leipzig is the team to beat.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Finkgrafe M. (Knee Injury) Haidara A. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Klostermann L. (Calf Injury) Nusa A. (Forearm injury) Schlager X. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Köln: Kilian L. (Knee Injury) van den Berg R. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 33:15. (average 2.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:7. (average 2.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	RB Leipzig - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Sandhausen - RB Leipzig	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Lens - RB Leipzig	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLWL
- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Wolfsburg - Köln	3:3 ✺
31.08.25	Köln - Freiburg	4:1 ✺
24.08.25	Mainz - Köln	0:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Jahn Regensburg - Köln	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Köln - Atalanta	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
15.03.24	Köln - RB Leipzig	1:5
28.10.23	RB Leipzig - Köln	6:0
04.02.23	Köln - RB Leipzig	0:0
13.08.22	RB Leipzig - Köln	2:2
11.02.22	RB Leipzig - Köln	3:1
18.09.21	Köln - RB Leipzig	1:1
20.04.21	Köln - RB Leipzig	2:1

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