Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 4 October 2023, Wednesday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Soares Dias A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	CMore, CMore MAX, CMore Sport
France	beIN Sports Max
Italy	Sky Sport Arena, Sky Sport
Portugal	Eleven Sports 4
Romania	Prima Sport 3
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	RB Leipzig		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	5.25	4	1.65
	5	3.9	1.68
	5	4.1	1.7	Watch
	5	4.15	1.65
	5.23	3.99	1.71
	4.8	4	1.65
	5.1	4.15	1.65
	5.2	4.1	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.07 ↑ (4.66)	4.05 ↓ (4.19)	1.68 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
18.9%

Draw
23.7%

Manchester City
57.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

22.5%

57.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.9%

22.8%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

The chances for Manchester City have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	10%	76.7%

RB Leipzig - Manchester City Predictions

Users Predictions: 120 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 16 - 13.3%). Man City will win (votes: 92 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 69.1% – 84.3%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Blaswich J. (G) 16. Klostermann L. 2. Simakan M. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. 20. Simons X. 24. Schlager X. 13. Seiwald N. 10. Forsberg E. (C) 17. Openda L. 9. Poulsen Y.	31. Ederson (G) 2. Walker K. (C) 25. Akanji M. 3. Dias R. 24. Gvardiol J. 16. Rodri 82. Lewis R. 47. Foden P. 20. Silva B. 10. Grealish J. 9. Haaland E.
Substitutes
14. Baumgartner C. 18. Carvalho F. 1. Gulacsi P. (G) 8. Haidara A. 44. Kampl K. 3. Lenz C. 30. Sesko B. 11. Werner T.	6. Ake N. 19. Alvarez J. 52. Bobb O. 33. Carson S. (G) 11. Doku J. 21. Gomez S. 8. Kovacic M. 27. Nunes M. 18. Ortega S. (G) 4. Phillips K. 5. Stones J.
Coaches
Rose M.	Guardiola P.

Preview

RB Leipzig in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Man City is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Man City is a favorite.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Bitshiabu E. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Muscle Injury) Olmo D. (Knee Injury) Orban W. (Knee Injury) Werner T. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Man City: De Bruyne K. (Thigh Injury) Stones J. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in RB Leipzig: Kampl K. (Hip Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches RB Leipzig won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-15.

Including matches at home between the teams RB Leipzig won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
30.09.23	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
27.09.23	Wehen Wiesbaden - RB Leipzig	2:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
23.09.23	Borussia Mönchengladbach - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.23	Young Boys - RB Leipzig	1:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
16.09.23	RB Leipzig - Augsburg	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWWWW
- Manchester City
English Premier League
30.09.23	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
27.09.23	Newcastle United - Manchester City	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
23.09.23	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.23	Manchester City - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
16.09.23	West Ham United - Manchester City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
14.03.23	Manchester City - RB Leipzig	7:0
22.02.23	RB Leipzig - Manchester City	1:1
07.12.21	RB Leipzig - Manchester City	2:1
15.09.21	Manchester City - RB Leipzig	6:3

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