Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 2, Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	Migu, ZhiBo8
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Extra 2
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Maldives	Medianet
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Sport TV2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Mainz		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.8	2.8	Watch
	2.55	3.6	2.6
	2.38	3.7	2.78	Watch
	2.58	3.7	2.7
	2.31	3.66	2.89	Watch
	2.38	3.4	2.8
	2.36	3.81	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.34)	3.67 ↑ (3.67)	2.77 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mainz
39.5%

Draw
26%

RB Leipzig
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

26.1%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

25.7%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	18.2%	45.5%

Mainz - RB Leipzig Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 12 - 36.4%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 15 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 28.5% – 62.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 3 - 33.3%). RB Leipzig (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - RB Leipzig (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 3 - 30%). RB Leipzig (votes: 7 - 70%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 19. Caci A. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. (C) 2. Mwene P. 9. Nordin A. 14. Boving W. 44. Weiper N.	1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 13. Seiwald N. 24. Schlager X. 14. Baumgartner C. 9. Bakayoko J. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.
Substitutes
37. Bobzien B. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 24. Kawasaki S. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 30. Widmer S.	6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 49. Diomande Y. 35. Finkgrafe M. 11. Harder C. 44. Kampl K. 19. Nedeljkovic K. 20. Ouedraogo A. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)
Coaches
Henriksen B.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Bell S. 🟨,
15', Bell S. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
32', Schlager X. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
40', 0 - 1, Bakayoko J. ⚽, Banzuzi E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Boving W. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
66', Bakayoko J. ↓, Harder C. ↑,
66', Nusa A. ↓, Diomande Y. ↑,
75', Mwene P. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
75', Nordin A. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
75', Caci A. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
90+3', Baumgartner C. ↓, Kampl K. ↑,
90+3', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Ouedraogo A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Hamstring Injury) Lee Jae-Sung (Thigh Injury) Nebel P. (Red Card)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Haidara A. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Gleiber D. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:41. (average 1.4:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.7:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
31.08.25	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Mainz - Rosenborg	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
24.08.25	Mainz - Köln	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Rosenborg - Mainz	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
18.08.25	Dynamo Dresden - Mainz	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWLLW
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
30.08.25	RB Leipzig - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Sandhausen - RB Leipzig	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Lens - RB Leipzig	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	RB Leipzig - Atalanta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
01.03.25	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2
19.10.24	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:2
30.03.24	RB Leipzig - Mainz	0:0
04.11.23	Mainz - RB Leipzig	2:0
01.04.23	RB Leipzig - Mainz	0:3
08.10.22	Mainz - RB Leipzig	1:1
08.01.22	RB Leipzig - Mainz	4:1

Upcoming Matches