Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 2, Tring Sport 3
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Australia	23:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Canada	09:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	21:30	Migu, ZhiBo8
Denmark	15:30	See, Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	15:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports Extra 2
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	20:30	K-Vision
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Maldives	18:30	Medianet
Mexico	07:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	21:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Sport TV2
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	16:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+
Vietnam	20:30	TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	Mainz		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.8	2.8	Watch
	2.55	3.6	2.6
	2.38	3.7	2.78	Watch
	2.58	3.7	2.7
	2.31	3.66	2.89	Watch
	2.38	3.4	2.8
	2.36	3.81	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.34)	3.67 ↑ (3.67)	2.77 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
39.5%

Draw
26%

RB Leipzig
34.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.9%

26.1%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

25.8%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	18.2%	45.5%

Mainz - RB Leipzig Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 12 - 36.4%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 15 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 28.5% – 62.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 3 - 33.3%). RB Leipzig (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - RB Leipzig (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 3 - 30%). RB Leipzig (votes: 7 - 70%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 19. Caci A. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. (C) 2. Mwene P. 9. Nordin A. 14. Boving W. 44. Weiper N.	1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 13. Seiwald N. 24. Schlager X. 14. Baumgartner C. 9. Bakayoko J. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.
Substitutes
37. Bobzien B. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 24. Kawasaki S. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 30. Widmer S.	6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 49. Diomande Y. 35. Finkgrafe M. 11. Harder C. 44. Kampl K. 19. Nedeljkovic K. 20. Ouedraogo A. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)
Coaches
Henriksen B.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Bell S. 🟨,
15', Bell S. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
32', Schlager X. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
40', 0 - 1, Bakayoko J. ⚽, Banzuzi E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Boving W. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
66', Bakayoko J. ↓, Harder C. ↑,
66', Nusa A. ↓, Diomande Y. ↑,
75', Mwene P. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
75', Nordin A. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
75', Caci A. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
90+3', Baumgartner C. ↓, Kampl K. ↑,
90+3', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Ouedraogo A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Hamstring Injury) Lee Jae-Sung (Thigh Injury) Nebel P. (Red Card)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Haidara A. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Gleiber D. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:41. (average 1.4:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.7:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
31.08.25	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Mainz - Rosenborg	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
24.08.25	Mainz - Köln	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Rosenborg - Mainz	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
18.08.25	Dynamo Dresden - Mainz	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWLLW
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
30.08.25	RB Leipzig - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Sandhausen - RB Leipzig	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Lens - RB Leipzig	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	RB Leipzig - Atalanta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
01.03.25	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2
19.10.24	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:2
30.03.24	RB Leipzig - Mainz	0:0
04.11.23	Mainz - RB Leipzig	2:0
01.04.23	RB Leipzig - Mainz	0:3
08.10.22	Mainz - RB Leipzig	1:1
08.01.22	RB Leipzig - Mainz	4:1

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