Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg)

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
Albania	Tring Sport 5
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	Migu, ZhiBo8
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
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Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
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Mexico	Sky Sport
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Norway	Viaplay
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Poland	Eleven Sports 3, Polsat Sport Extra 4
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
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Vietnam	TV 360
International	Onefootball


	Wolfsburg		Köln

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.6	3.6
	2.02	3.55	3.55	Watch
	2.02	3.75	3.87
	3.32	3.86	1.99	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.6
	2.06	3.73	3.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.02)	3.64 ↑ (3.55)	3.45 ↓ (3.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
44.8%

Draw
26.8%

Köln
28.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48%

27.3%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

30.3%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Wolfsburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Köln, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.9%	14.3%	17.9%

Wolfsburg - Köln Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Wolfsburg will win (votes: 19 - 67.9%). Köln will win (votes: 5 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wolfsburg: 50.6% – 85.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 4 - 50%). Köln (votes: 4 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grabara K. (G) 2. Fischer K. 15. Jenz M. 4. Koulierakis K. 21. Maehle J. 27. Arnold M. (C) 5. Vini Souza 7. Skov Olsen A. 10. Majer L. 39. Wimmer P. 9. Amoura M.	1. Schwabe M. (C) 28. Sebulonsen S. 33. van den Berg R. 4. Hubers T. 32. Lund K. 2. Schmied J. 6. Martel E. 7. Waldschmidt L. 29. Thielmann J. 30. Bulter M. 16. Kaminski J.
Substitutes
11. Daghim A. 8. Dardai B. 24. Eriksen C. 19. Lindstrom J. 29. Muller M. (G) 17. Pejcinovic D. 14. Seelt J. 23. Wind J. 25. Zehnter A.	9. Ache R. 17. Castro-Montes A. 13. El Mala S. 8. Huseinbasic D. 18. Johannesson I. 11. Kainz F. 5. Krauss T. 39. Ozkacar C. 20. Zieler R. (G)
Coaches
Simonis P.	Kwasniok L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Waldschmidt L. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Amoura M. ⚽, Arnold M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Waldschmidt L. ↓, Johannesson I. ↑,
64', Sebulonsen S. ↓, Castro-Montes A. ↑,
64', Thielmann J. ↓, El Mala S. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Majer L. ⚽, Maehle J. (A),
68', Majer L. 🟨,
69', Zieler R. 🟨,
70', Amoura M. ↓, Pejcinovic D. ↑,
71', van den Berg R. ↓, Kainz F. ↑,
72', Schmied J. 🟨,
78', Lund K. ↓, Ache R. ↑,
84', Johannesson I. 🟨,
85', Majer L. ↓, Seelt J. ↑,
86', Grabara K. 🟨,
89', Wimmer P. ↓, Daghim A. ↑,
89', Skov Olsen A. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 2, Johannesson I. ⚽, El Mala S. (A),
90+9', 3 - 2, Arnold M. ⚽,
90+14', 3 - 3, Kaminski J. ⚽, Ache R. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 3.

Wolfsburg has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Köln is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Wolfsburg has had a series of away games.

Wolfsburg could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Paredes K. (Foot Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Svanberg M. (Red Card) Vavro D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Köln: Kilian L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Köln: Johannesson I. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:23. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.5:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Wolfsburg - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 48.04%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
31.08.25	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Heidenheim - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Hemelingen - Wolfsburg	0:9 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Wolfsburg	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Wolfsburg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TWWLL
- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
31.08.25	Köln - Freiburg	4:1 ✺
24.08.25	Mainz - Köln	0:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Jahn Regensburg - Köln	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Köln - Atalanta	4:0 ✺
25.07.25	Köln - Leicester City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
27.01.24	Wolfsburg - Köln	1:1
26.08.23	Köln - Wolfsburg	1:2
25.02.23	Köln - Wolfsburg	0:2
03.09.22	Wolfsburg - Köln	2:4
07.05.22	Köln - Wolfsburg	0:1
14.12.21	Wolfsburg - Köln	2:3
03.04.21	Wolfsburg - Köln	1:0

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