Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: LNK Sporta Parks (Riga)

Referee: Milanovic M. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4
Sweden	Aftonbladet Plus, Sport Bladet Play


	RFS		Malmö

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.5	1.8	Watch
	4.1	3.6	1.83
	4.15	3.55	1.82
	4.43	3.51	1.83
				Watch
	4.2	3.4	1.8
	4.41	3.75	1.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.23 ↓ (4.81)	3.55 ↓ (3.81)	1.82 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RFS
22.1%

Draw
26.4%

Malmö
51.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20%

25.2%

54.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

24.8%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RFS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Malmö has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RFS than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Malmö than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.3%	9.6%	48.1%

RFS - Malmö Predictions

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. RFS will win (votes: 22 - 44.9%). Malmö will win (votes: 23 - 46.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Malmö: 32.9% – 60.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. RFS (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Malmö (votes: 8 - 34.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - RFS (9.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - RFS (1.87) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - RFS (2.88) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -0.25 - Malmö (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1, 1st Half - RFS (10.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - RFS (4.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - RFS (4.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 2nd Half - RFS (2.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 1st Half - RFS (2.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2, 2nd Half - RFS (50.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2, 1st Half - RFS (85.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2 - RFS (28.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - RFS (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1, 2nd Half - RFS (10.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 42 Selected Experts predict this event. RFS (votes: 30 - 71.4%). Malmö (votes: 10 - 23.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Maric M. (G) 11. Savalnieks R. 21. Stuglis E. 43. Lipuscek Z. (C) 70. Talla M. 10. Ikaunieks J. 30. Njie H. 26. Panic S. 18. Zelenkovs D. 22. Lemajic D. 9. Ikaunieks D.	30. Olsen R. (G) 19. Rosler C. 18. Jansson P. (C) 5. Djuric A. 25. Busanello 17. Stryger J. 16. Berg O. 7. Rosengren O. 38. Bolin H. 29. Haksabanovic S. 22. Ali T.
Substitutes
71. Diedhiou B. 41. Karashima Y. 25. Mares P. 16. Nerugals J. (G) 8. Odisharia L. 77. Porsan Clemente J. 81. Rakic S. 27. Sibass R. 4. Veips R. 13. Vilkovs S. (G) 37. Wouter T.	40. Busuladzic K. 11. Ekong E. 33. Ellborg M. (G) 32. Gudjohnsen D. T. 23. Johnsen L. 2. Karlsson J. 9. Kiese I. 6. Lewicki O. 13. Olsson M. 8. Sigurdsson A. 37. Skogmar A. 35. Zatterstrom N.
Coaches
Morozs V.	Rydstrom H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Rosengren O. ⚽, Haksabanovic S. (A),
35', 0 - 2, Jansson P. ⚽, Busanello (A),
40', 1 - 2, Lemajic D. ⚽, Savalnieks R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', 1 - 3, Haksabanovic S. ⚽, Bolin H. (A),
62', Ikaunieks D. ↓, Diedhiou B. ↑,
70', Haksabanovic S. ↓, Sigurdsson A. ↑,
78', Savalnieks R. ↓, Mares P. ↑,
78', Ikaunieks J. ↓, Wouter T. ↑,
78', Djuric A. ↓, Zatterstrom N. ↑,
78', Rosengren O. ↓, Johnsen L. ↑,
78', Ali T. ↓, Ekong E. ↑,
88', 1 - 4, Johnsen L. (Pen),
89', Zelenkovs D. ↓, Rakic S. ↑,
89', Bolin H. ↓, Skogmar A. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories.

Malmö may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Malmö is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK RFS
Latvian Virsliga
19.07.25	Metta - RFS	0:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.07.25	RFS - Levadia Tallinn	1:0 ✺
08.07.25	Levadia Tallinn - RFS	0:1 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
04.07.25	RFS - Liepāja	2:1 ✺
30.06.25	BFC Daugavpils - RFS	1:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWWW
- Malmö FF
Swedish Allsvenskan
19.07.25	Öster - Malmö	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.07.25	Malmö - Iberia 1999	3:1 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
12.07.25	Malmö - Norrköping	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.07.25	Iberia 1999 - Malmö	1:3 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
05.07.25	GAIS - Malmö	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWWT

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