Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 31 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Juan Domingo Perón (Avellaneda)

Referee: Gonzalez F. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	Comteco, Cotegua, Coteor, Inter Satelital
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	ESPN
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
Georgia	Silk Universal
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Fox Sports 2
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+ 1
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	Inter
World	DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Racing		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	4	Watch
	2	3.2	3.75
	2.05	3.25	3.75	Watch
	2.11	3.24	4.08
	2.03	3.19	4.09	Watch
	2	3.1	3.7	Watch
	2.07	3.2	3.9	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (3.66)	3.19 ↓ (3.25)	3.88 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Racing
46.1%

Draw
29.6%

Corinthians
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

28.7%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.2%

27.9%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Racing's performance.

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Corinthians might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing than the current prediction. (-19.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Racing that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+20.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Corinthians could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.2%	47.1%	11.8%

Racing - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Racing will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Corinthians will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Arias G. (C) 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 3. Di Cesare M. 13. Sosa S. 2. Garcia A. 27. Rojas G. 8. Quintero J. 32. Almendra A. E. 5. Nardoni J. 7. Salas M. 9. Adrian Martinez	22. Hugo Souza (C) 2. Matheus Franca 5. Ramalho A. 3. Torres F. 21. Matheus Bidu 38. Carrillo A. 47. Martinez J. 18. Charles 10. Garro R. 9. Yuri Alberto 7. Depay M.
Substitutes
4. Barrios M. 25. Cambeses F. (G) 17. Carbonero J. 6. Colombo N. 10. Martinez Tobinson R. B. 34. Mura F. 35. Quiros S. 22. Rodriguez B. 30. Sigali L. 28. Solari S. 12. Vietto L. 36. Zuculini B.	28. Alex Santana 11. Angel Romero 27. Breno Bidon 23. Fagner 13. Gustavo Henrique 46. Hugo 77. Igor Coronado 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 16. Pedro Henrique 20. Pedro Raul 14. Raniele 19. Talles Magno
Coaches
Costas G.	Diaz R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Yuri Alberto ⚽, Depay M. (A),
9', Torres F. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Quintero J. (Pen),
39', 2 - 1, Quintero J. ⚽, Adrian Martinez (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Carrillo A. ↓, Alex Santana ↑,
58', Garcia A. 🟨,
59', Garro R. ↓, Talles Magno ↑,
59', Charles ↓, Breno Bidon ↑,
68', Martinez J. ↓, Angel Romero ↑,
69', Almendra A. E. ↓, Zuculini B. ↑,
76', Quintero J. ↓, Vietto L. ↑,
79', Depay M. ↓, Igor Coronado ↑,
80', Matheus Bidu 🟨,
81', Breno Bidon 🟨,
90', Salas M. ↓, Martinez Tobinson R. B. ↑,
90+1', Adrian Martinez ↓, Solari S. ↑,
90+2', Rojas G. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-2.

Recent matches Racing is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Corinthians is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Racing could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Corinthians have a series of home games.

Racing will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Racing won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:6 (average 1:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Racing won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 45.89%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club de Avellaneda
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.10.24	Banfield - Racing	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.10.24	Corinthians - Racing	2:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.10.24	Racing - Defensa y Justicia	4:3 ✺
05.10.24	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	1:0 ✺
30.09.24	Racing - Platense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTWLT
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
28.10.24	Cuiabá - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.10.24	Corinthians - Racing	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
20.10.24	Corinthians - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.24	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	5:2 ✺
05.10.24	Corinthians - Internacional RS	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
24.10.24	Corinthians - Racing	2:2
27.02.19	Racing - Corinthians	1:2 penalties
14.02.19	Corinthians - Racing	1:1
20.09.17	Racing - Corinthians	0:0
13.09.17	Corinthians - Racing	1:1

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