Match Info

LaLiga - Round 21

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Sesma M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 3
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Rayo Vallecano		Osasuna

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.22	3.15	3.55	Watch
	2.25	3.16	3.74
	2.25	3.09	3.57	Watch
	2.2	3	3.5
	2.27	3.2	3.61	Watch
	2.22	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2)	3.11 ↓ (3.31)	3.58 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
42.8%

Draw
30.6%

Osasuna
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

28.7%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

28.5%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Osasuna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.5%	47.5%	10%

Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 17 - 42.5%). Osasuna will win (votes: 4 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 47.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 32% – 63%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Osasuna (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Rayo Vallecano (1.34) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Osasuna (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 22. Pacha 24. Lejeune F. 6. Ciss P. 3. Chavarria P. 7. Palazon I. 23. Valentin O. (C) 4. Diaz P. 14. Martin C. 19. de Frutos J. 18. Garcia A.	1. Herrera S. (G) 19. Rosier V. 22. Boyomo F. 5. Herrando J. 20. Galan J. 7. Moncayola J. 8. Munoz I. 14. Garcia R. (C) 10. Oroz A. 21. Munoz V. 17. Budimir A.
Substitutes
12. Akhomach I. 9. Alemao 10. Camello S. 15. Gumbau G. 17. Lopez U. 5. Luiz Felipe 11. Nteka R. 21. Perez F. 8. Trejo O. 33. Vertrouwd J.	41. Arguibide I. 11. Barja K. 23. Bretones A. 3. Cruz J. 13. Fernandez A. (G) 9. Garcia R. 16. Gomez M. 15. Moro R. 29. Osambela A. 6. Torro L.
Coaches
Perez I.	Lisci A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Budimir A. ⚽, Herrando J. (A),
38', Munoz I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Valentin O. ↓, Alemao ↑,
46', Martin C. ↓, Akhomach I. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Ciss P. ⚽, Palazon I. (A),
66', Diaz P. 🟨,
67', Munoz I. ↓, Osambela A. ↑,
72', Palazon I. ↓, Vertrouwd J. ↑,
72', de Frutos J. ↓, Camello S. ↑,
79', Herrando J. 🟨,
81', Oroz A. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
81', Budimir A. ↓, Bretones A. ↑,
90', Garcia A. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Vertrouwd J. (Own goal),
90+1', Ciss P. 🟨,
90+4', Munoz V. ↓, Torro L. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 3, Osambela A. ⚽, Moncayola J. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Rayo Vallecano could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Mendez D. (Injury) Mendy N. (Red Card) Mumin A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Osasuna: Becker S. (Stomach Disorder) Benito I. (Knee Injury) Catena A. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Balliu I. (Muscle Injury) Ratiu A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:23. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 2:1.4).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Rayo Vallecano: 0.29% Osasuna: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11:16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6:13	-7	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
18.01.26	Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
14.01.26	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
11.01.26	Rayo Vallecano - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.01.26	Granada - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
02.01.26	Rayo Vallecano - Getafe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWWT
- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
17.01.26	Osasuna - Real Oviedo	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.01.26	Real Sociedad - Osasuna	3:2 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga
10.01.26	Girona - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Osasuna - Deportivo Alavés	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
14.09.25	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	2:0
19.01.25	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	1:1
16.09.24	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	3:1
20.04.24	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	2:1
15.12.23	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	1:0
14.04.23	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	2:1
04.09.22	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	2:1

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