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Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 20
  • Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday
  • Location: Estadio de Balaídos (Vigo)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Celta de Vigo Rayo Vallecano
    Celta de Vigo Rayo Vallecano
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.88 ↓
    (2.14)    		 3.43 ↑
    (3.11)    		 4.43 ↑
    (3.63)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

    • The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Celta de Vigo
    50.7%    		Draw
    27.8%    		Rayo Vallecano
    21.5%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    43.9% 30.2% 25.9%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    45.1% 31% 25.2%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Celta de Vigo's performance.
  • Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Celta de Vigo that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    55.8% 25.6% 18.6%

    Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Celta will win (votes: 24 - 55.8%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 8 - 18.6%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 25.6%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Celta: 41% – 70.6%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • DNB - Celta (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Rayo Vallecano (1.91) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DC - Celta (1.22) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    13. RomaniaRadu I. (G)
    32. SpainRodriguez J.
      2. SwedenStarfelt C. (C)
    20. SpainAlonso M.
      5. SpainCarreira S.
      6. GuineaMoriba I.
    22. SpainSotelo H.
      3. SpainMingueza O.
    15. SpainZaragoza B.
    18. SpainDuran P.
    23. SpainAlvarez H.
    		13. ArgentinaBatalla A. (G)
    22. UruguayPacha
    24. FranceLejeune F.
    32. SenegalMendy N.
      3. SpainChavarria P.
      7. SpainPalazon I. (C)
    15. SpainGumbau G.
      4. SpainDiaz P.
    14. SpainMartin C.
    19. Spainde Frutos J.
    18. SpainGarcia A.
    Substitutes
      4. GhanaAidoo J.
    10. SpainAspas I.
    38. SpainBurcio H.
    24. SpainDominguez C.
    39. MoroccoEl Abdellaoui J.
    12. SpainFernandez M.
      7. SpainIglesias B.
    29. SpainLago Y.
    16. SpainRoman M.
    17. SpainRueda J.
    19. SwedenSwedberg W.
      1. SpainVillar I. (G)
    		  9. BrazilAlemao
    28. SpainBecerra S.
      1. SpainCardenas D. (G)
    26. Spainde las Sias M.
    40. SpainMolina A. (G)
    11. AngolaNteka R.
    21. SpainPerez F.
      8. ArgentinaTrejo O.
    33. NetherlandsVertrouwd J.
    Coaches
         SpainGiraldez C.
    		     SpainPerez I.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 0)
    • 40', 1 - 0, Carreira S. ⚽, Alvarez H. (A),
    • 44', Alvarez H. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
    • 54', 2 - 0, Zaragoza B. (Penalty Awarded),
    • 58', Gumbau G. 🟨,
    • 58', Sotelo H. 🟨,
    • 59', Martin C. 🟨,
    • 61', Gumbau G. ↓, Nteka R. ↑,
    • 61', Pacha ↓, Alemao ↑,
    • 63', Alvarez H. ↓, Swedberg W. ↑,
    • 63', Sotelo H. ↓, Roman M. ↑,
    • 65', Palazon I. 🟨,
    • 65', Aspas I. 🟨,
    • 66', Mingueza O. 🟨,
    • 66', Mendy N. 🟥,
    • 68', Martin C. ↓, Vertrouwd J. ↑,
    • 71', Rodriguez J. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
    • 71', Mingueza O. ↓, Rueda J. ↑,
    • 78', de Frutos J. ↓, Trejo O. ↑,
    • 79', Palazon I. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
    • 79', 3 - 0, Rueda J. ⚽,
    • 83', Starfelt C. ↓, Burcio H. ↑,

    Preview

  • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 and 12).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Celta won 0.
  • Celta is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
  • Rayo Vallecano has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
  • Celta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • In this match, Celta is seen as the favorite.
  • There will not play in Celta: Beltran F. (Inactive) Jutgla F. (Inactive) Ristic M. (Coach's decision)
  • There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Balliu I. (Muscle Injury) Camello S. (Injury) Ciss P. (International duty) Lopez U. (Injury) Luiz Felipe (Injury) Mendez D. (Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury) Ratiu A. (Muscle Injury) Valentin O. (Red Card)
  • In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Celta won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.2:1.4).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Celta won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.9:1).

    • Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Celta Vigo: 0.3% Rayo Vallecano: 0.29%

    Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    12Rayo Vallecano722311:16-58
    14Celta Vigo71428:627

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Celta de Vigo
    Spanish LaLiga
    12.01.26 Sevilla - Celta de Vigo 0:1 ✺
    03.01.26 Celta de Vigo - Valencia 4:1 ✺
    20.12.25 Real Oviedo - Celta de Vigo 0:0 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    17.12.25 Albacete Balompié - Celta de Vigo 3:2 penalties ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    14.12.25 Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao 2:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8
    WWTLW
    - Rayo Vallecano
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    14.01.26 Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano 2:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    11.01.26 Rayo Vallecano - Mallorca 2:1 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    06.01.26 Granada - Rayo Vallecano 1:3 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    02.01.26 Rayo Vallecano - Getafe 1:1 ✺
    21.12.25 Elche - Rayo Vallecano 4:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7
    LWWTL
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    21.09.25 Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo 1:1
    18.05.25 Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano 1:2
    10.01.25 Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo 2:1
    31.03.24 Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano 0:0
    11.12.23 Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo 0:0
    11.03.23 Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano 3:0
    10.11.22 Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo 0:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Celta de Vigo
    UEFA Europa League
    15.10.26 Celta de Vigo - Juventus ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    11.10.26 Elche - Celta de Vigo ✺
    - Rayo Vallecano
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao ✺

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