Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 22

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta (Avilés)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Real Avilés		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	2.8
	2.35	3.05	2.92
	2.44	3.05	3.19
	2.39	3.07	3.07	Watch
	2.3	2.8	2.9
	2.36	2.85	3.09
	2.42	2.83	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.25)	2.95 ↓ (3.16)	2.98 ↓ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Avilés
38.5%

Draw
30.9%

Mérida AD
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

29.4%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.1%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Real Avilés - Mérida AD Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mérida AD (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 20. Campabadal E. 5. Babin J. 15. Chukwuma E. 3. Diaz V. 17. Bari Q. 8. Bautista K. 16. Gomez A. 14. Cayarga B. 21. Uzkudun A. 9. Santamaria A.	1. Csenterics A. (G) 3. Lancho J. 5. Dominguez J. 23. Verges E. 19. Pipe 6. Geovanny 8. Solar M. 21. Beneit R. 7. Chiqui 12. Gomes R. 9. Hallsson S.
Substitutes
13. Almodovar N. (G) 7. Hernandez R. 22. Isi Ros 24. Lopez A. 26. Menendez O. 2. Ortega G. 19. Poquet N. 23. Rivera C. 11. Rubio R.	11. Areso J. 14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 18. Dibrani B. 26. Gil A. (G) 17. Herranz Corral V. 4. Pareja L. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Dominguez J. 🟨,
28', Gil A. 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Gomes R. ⚽,
37', Bari Q. 🟨,
41', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 1 - 1, Santamaria A. ⚽,
67', Gomes R. ↓, Dibrani B. ↑,
68', Hallsson S. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
71', Cayarga B. ↓, Isi Ros ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Dominguez J. ⚽,
81', Solar M. ↓, Pareja L. ↑,
82', Gomez A. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
82', Chukwuma E. ↓, Rivera C. ↑,
88', Bari Q. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
88', Chiqui ↓, Rivas M. ↑,
88', Santamaria A. ↓, Poquet N. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 11).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Real Avilés may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Avilés won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Mérida AD - the odds 3.17 are the expected chance of winning is 29.31%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.01.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Avilés	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Real Avilés - Pontevedra	0:3 ✺
03.01.26	Ourense CF - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Real Avilés - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWLLW
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
23.01.26	Mérida AD - Pontevedra	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Mérida AD - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Lugo - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
19.12.25	Mérida AD - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Avilés	2:1

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