Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 18

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ourense CF		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	2.9
	2.38	3	2.92
	2.35	3.04	3.18	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3
	2.32	2.96	3.03
	2.25	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.29)	2.98 ↓ (3.19)	3.01 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
39.3%

Draw
30.4%

Real Avilés
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

29.1%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

28%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Ourense CF - Real Avilés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 5. Prado M. 4. Carmona F. (C) 14. Perez A. 3. Sanz H. 21. Guerrero A. 8. Ramos J. 24. Moreno C. 17. Ouhdadi O. 6. Castillo N. 7. Bouzaig A.	1. Fernandez A. (G) 2. Ortega G. 5. Babin J. (C) 12. Granero B. 20. Campabadal E. 7. Hernandez R. 8. Bautista K. 16. Gomez A. 14. Cayarga B. 9. Santamaria A. 10. Cueto J.
Substitutes
11. Aranzabe A. 10. Camus M. 2. Coto E. 20. Gueye L. 12. Jelbat A. 16. Munoz D. 15. Piera J. 23. Punzano I. 18. Rabadan D. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 9. Vazquez K.	13. Almodovar N. (G) 17. Bari Q. 26. Carracedo O. 15. Chukwuma E. 23. El Arbaoui Y. 18. Gete A. 22. Isi Ros 19. Poquet N. 11. Rubio R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 🟨,
31', 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Cueto J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Cueto J. 🟨,
54', Hernandez R. 🟨,
64', Hernandez R. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
64', Cueto J. ↓, Gete A. ↑,
65', Prado M. ↓, Coto E. ↑,
65', Ramos J. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Ouhdadi O. ⚽,
74', 2 - 1, Bouzaig A. ⚽,
80', Sanz H. ↓, Jelbat A. ↑,
81', Gomez A. ↓, Bari Q. ↑,
81', Babin J. ↓, Chukwuma E. ↑,
81', Ortega G. ↓, Carracedo O. ↑,
82', Bautista K. 🟨,
86', Guerrero A. ↓, Aranzabe A. ↑,
86', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
88', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 14 and 6).

Recent form of Ourense CF has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Real Avilés has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ourense CF won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:0. (average 2.3:0).

Including home matches between the teams, Ourense CF won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Ourense CF - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.55%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Real Avilés - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 30.34%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.12.25	Lugo - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
18.12.25	Ourense CF - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 ET ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.12.25	Ourense CF - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Mérida AD - Ourense CF	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Ourense CF - Girona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLTLW
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.12.25	Real Avilés - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Real Avilés - Tenerife	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Real Avilés - Celta de Vigo B	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
05.05.24	Real Avilés - Ourense CF	0:2
06.01.24	Ourense CF - Real Avilés	2:0
22.04.23	Real Avilés - Ourense CF	0:3
11.12.22	Ourense CF - Real Avilés	2:0

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