Match Info

Premiere Division - Round 21

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Modibo Kéïta (Bamako) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
International	16:30	FIFA+


	Real Bamako		Diarra

	1	X	2
	2.12	2.72	3.65	Watch
	2.11	2.73	3.68
	2.24	2.64	3.84	Watch
	2.15	2.63	3.6
	2.1	2.75	3.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.79)	2.69 ↓ (3.12)	3.72 ↓ (4.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Bamako
42.1%

Draw
33.5%

Diarra
24.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.4%

29.5%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

30.1%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Bamako has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Bamako's form might have worsened.

Diarra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Diarra's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Bamako than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Bamako, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Diarra than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Diarra, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Real Bamako - Diarra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 and 4).

Real Bamako has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Diarra has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Real Bamako may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real Bamako is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Real Bamako won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Real Bamako won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Real Bamako	26	14	7	5	32:14	18	49
4	Diarra	26	13	5	8	32:24	8	44

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Bamako
Coupe du Mali
17.05.26	Real Bamako - Djoliba	0:1 penalties ✺
Malian Première Division
09.05.26	Binga - Real Bamako	1:0 ✺
Coupe du Mali
06.05.26	Real Bamako - Mali Coura	1:0 ✺
Malian Première Division
24.04.26	Real Bamako - Bakaridjan	1:1 ✺
15.04.26	USFAS Bamako - Real Bamako	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLWTL
- FC Diarra
Malian Première Division
10.05.26	Diarra - Derby Académie	1:4 ✺
Coupe du Mali
07.05.26	USFAS Bamako - Diarra	0:1 ✺
Malian Première Division
03.05.26	Diarra - Binga	1:0 ✺
16.04.26	Bakaridjan - Diarra	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Diarra - USFAS Bamako	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Malian Première Division
10.01.26	Diarra - Real Bamako	0:2
19.04.25	Diarra - Real Bamako	0:1
31.12.24	Real Bamako - Diarra	3:3

Real Bamako - Diarra