Match Info

Primera B - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jaime Morón León (Cartagena)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Real Cartagena		Cúcuta Deportivo

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.15	3.45
	1.97	3.25	4.25
	2.52	3.21	2.71	Watch
	2.12	3.16	3.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.52)	3.19 ↓ (3.21)	3.46 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Cartagena
43.4%

Draw
29.4%

Cúcuta Deportivo
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

28.9%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

30.7%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Cartagena's performance.

Cúcuta Deportivo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cúcuta Deportivo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Cartagena than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cúcuta Deportivo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cúcuta Deportivo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Real Cartagena - Cúcuta Deportivo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Real Cartagena will win (votes: 6 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Cartagena (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Armesto K. (G) 77. Acosta O. 6. Leudo J. 17. Marrugo C. 14. Martinez E. 97. Melendez A. 10. Montero F. 19. Moralez A. 88. Ramirez C. 93. Rodriguez A. 21. Rodriguez J.	12. Sanchez R. (G) 8. Ceballos J. 70. Cruz W. 27. Duarte Barajas E. M. 49. Hinestroza L. 6. Orozco S. 30. Payares L. 4. Plazas H. 7. Ramos J. 29. Rios L. 19. Valencia J.
Substitutes
8. Acosta F. 7. De La Rosa W. 26. Garcia N. 9. Gomez S. 1. Montes A. (G) 91. Ortega M. 2. Pedrosa G. 5. Solarte Espana J. A. 25. Vergara M.	10. Alvarez C. 2. Ballesteros A. 16. Borja A. 21. Guevara L. 9. Pisano M. 39. Quejada K. 24. Roman S. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
24', Plazas H. 🟨,
35', Moralez A. 🟨,
44', Payares L. 🟨,
45+2', Ramirez C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Melendez A. ↓, Pedrosa G. ↑,
46', Rodriguez J. ↓, Acosta F. ↑,
46', Ramirez C. ↓, Ortega M. ↑,
61', Marrugo C. ↓, De La Rosa W. ↑,
63', 🟨,
63', Ramos J. ↓, Quejada K. ↑,
63', Valencia J. ↓, Pisano M. ↑,
69', Leudo J. ↓, Gomez S. ↑,
69', Orozco S. 🟨,
69', Rios L. ↓, Alvarez C. ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Ortega M. ⚽,
78', Acosta F. 🟨,
82', 1 - 1, Pisano M. ⚽,
85', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
89', 🟨,
90', Acosta O. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Cúcuta is Qualified for Primera B (Clausura ~ Quadrangular )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Cartagena won 0.

Real Cartagena has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cúcuta is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Real Cartagena might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Real Cartagena won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Cartagena won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Cartagena
Colombian Primera B
10.10.25	Barranquilla - Real Cartagena	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	Real Cartagena - Atlético Cali	4:0 ✺
29.09.25	Jaguares de Córdoba - Real Cartagena	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Real Cartagena - Orsomarso	3:1 ✺
15.09.25	Patriotas - Real Cartagena	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLWL
- Cúcuta Deportivo
Colombian Primera B
10.10.25	Real Santander - Cúcuta Deportivo	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Cúcuta Deportivo - Leones	4:0 ✺
29.09.25	Atlético Cali - Cúcuta Deportivo	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Cúcuta Deportivo - Jaguares de Córdoba	1:2 ✺
15.09.25	Barranquilla - Cúcuta Deportivo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
11.05.25	Cúcuta Deportivo - Real Cartagena	1:1
07.08.24	Cúcuta Deportivo - Real Cartagena	2:1
17.02.24	Real Cartagena - Cúcuta Deportivo	1:1
16.09.23	Cúcuta Deportivo - Real Cartagena	2:0
Colombian Copa
03.05.23	Cúcuta Deportivo - Real Cartagena	0:0
12.04.23	Real Cartagena - Cúcuta Deportivo	0:1
Colombian Primera B
09.04.23	Real Cartagena - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:2

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