Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Real Madrid		Inter Milan

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.5	5.25
	1.58	4.50	4.80
	1.62	4.25	5.25
	1.61	4.55	5.45
	1.61	4.49	5.33	Watch
	1.58	4.5	5.45
	1.57	4.58	5.68
	1.6	4.5	4.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.54)	4.48 ↓ (4.5)	5.26 ↓ (5.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
60.3%

Draw
21.4%

Inter Milan
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

21.1%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

20.1%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Inter Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.9%	10.5%	17.5%

Real Madrid - Inter Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 41 - 71.9%). Inter will win (votes: 10 - 17.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 60.2% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Inter (votes: 3 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Real (1.94) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.25 - over (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Inter (2.36) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (1.50) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +2 - Inter (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.55) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.48) (votes: 90%) ⭐ Best Value.

Cards O/U 3.5 - over (1.80) (votes: 87%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 11 - 55%). Inter (votes: 7 - 35%). Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 24. Dumfries D. 16. Konate I. 4. Huijsen D. 17. Cucurella M. 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 8. Valverde F. (C) 21. Diaz B. 5. Bellingham J. 7. Vinicius Junior 10. Mbappe K.	1. Martinez J. (G) 28. Pavard B. 31. Bisseck Y. 95. Bastoni A. 17. Diouf A. 23. Barella N. 20. Calhanoglu H. 21. Jones C. 30. Carlos Augusto 10. Martinez L. (C) 9. Thuram M.
Substitutes
18. Carreras A. 29. Cestero Sancho J. 25. Diomande Y. 9. Endrick 19. Espi C. 13. Lunin A. (G) 26. Mestre S. (G) 27. Pitarch T. 33. Rivas M. 22. Rudiger A. 14. Tchouameni A.	25. Akanji M. 14. Bonny A. 12. Di Gennaro R. (G) 94. Esposito F. 11. Luis Henrique 22. Mkhitaryan H. 49. Provedel I. (G) 5. Stankovic A. 6. Stones J. 8. Sucic P. 7. Zielinski P.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Chivu C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Mbappe K. ⚽, Diaz B. (A),
23', 2 - 0, Valverde F. ⚽,
39', Calhanoglu H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pavard B. ↓, Stones J. ↑,
60', Barella N. ↓, Sucic P. ↑,
60', Calhanoglu H. ↓, Zielinski P. ↑,
60', Thuram M. ↓, Bonny A. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Carlos Augusto ⚽, Martinez L. (A),
79', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Tchouameni A. ↑,
79', Diaz B. ↓, Diomande Y. ↑,
80', Martinez L. 🟨,
80', Huijsen D. 🟨,
83', Carlos Augusto ↓, Mkhitaryan H. ↑,
87', Vinicius Junior ↓, Carreras A. ↑,
90+3', Mbappe K. ↓, Espi C. ↑,
90+4', Bisseck Y. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 5.

Real is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Inter is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Inter may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Real: Asencio R. (Muscle Injury) Camavinga E. (Red Card) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Guler A. (Red Card) Mendy F. (Hip Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury) Silva B. (Red Card)

There will not play in Inter: Dimarco F. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Lunin A. (Illness)

There are questionable in Inter: Spence D. (Injury)

We predict that Real will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Real won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:4. (average 2.1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Real Madrid: 10.27% Inter: 2.22%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2:1	1	3
25	Inter	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 61.66%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
04.09.26	Betis - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Real Madrid - Málaga	4:0 ✺
26.08.26	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:1 ✺
22.08.26	Espanyol - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.26	Schalke 04 - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWWW
- Inter Milan
Italian Serie A
05.09.26	Inter Milan - Napoli	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Cagliari - Inter Milan	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Inter Milan - Monza	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Inter Milan - Betis	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Juventus - Inter Milan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
07.12.21	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	2:0
15.09.21	Inter Milan - Real Madrid	0:1
25.11.20	Inter Milan - Real Madrid	0:2
03.11.20	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	3:2
International Champions Cup
27.07.15	Inter Milan - Real Madrid	0:3
26.07.14	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	1:2 penalties
Club Friendly
10.08.13	Inter Milan - Real Madrid	0:3

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