Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 5

Date: 29 November 2023, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	22:00	BTV Action
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo
France	21:00	beIN Sports
Hungary	21:00	Sport 1
Luxembourg	21:00	Club RTL
Portugal	20:00	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	22:00	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport
United Kingdom	20:00	TNT Sports


	Real Madrid		Napoli

	1	X	2
	1.75	4.2	4
	1.78	3.9	4.2
	1.78	4.1	4.25	Watch
	1.82	4.1	4.18
	1.83	4.11	4.19
	1.73	4	4
	1.85	4.25	4.4
	1.83	4	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.71)	4.08 ↑ (4.06)	4.17 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 0.3%, offered by

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Network on TV: TUDN

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
53.4%

Draw
23.5%

Napoli
23%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.7%

23.5%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

22.8%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.9%	16.8%	5.3%

Real Madrid - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 95 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 74 - 77.9%). Napoli will win (votes: 5 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 16.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 69.6% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lunin A. (G) 2. Carvajal D. (C) 22. Rudiger A. 4. Alaba D. 23. Mendy F. 19. Ceballos D. 15. Valverde F. 8. Kroos T. 5. Bellingham J. 21. Diaz B. 11. Rodrygo	1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 13. Rrahmani A. 3. Natan 5. Juan Jesus 99. Anguissa F. 68. Lobotka S. 20. Zielinski P. 21. Politano M. 18. Simeone G. 77. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
31. Canizares L. (G) 6. Fernandez N. 30. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 33. Garcia G. 14. Joselu 17. Lucas 28. Martin M. 32. Paz N. 38. Zidane T.	24. Cajuste J. 14. Contini N. (G) 7. Elmas E. 70. Gaetano G. 95. Gollini P. (G) 9. Osimhen V. 55. Ostigard L. 81. Raspadori G. 59. Zanoli A. 23. Zerbin A.
Coaches
Ancelotti C.	Mazzarri W.

Preview

Real is Qualified for Champions League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Real in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Napoli is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Real could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Real is a favorite.

There will not play in Real: Camavinga E. (Knee Injury) Courtois T. (Knee Injury) Guler A. (Thigh Injury) Militao E. (Knee Injury) Tchouameni A. (Foot Injury) Vinicius Junior (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Lindstrom J. (Ankle Injury) Olivera M. (Knee Injury) Rui M. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Arrizabalaga K. (Groin Injury) Modric L. (Muscle Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Real won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Real won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
26.11.23	Cádiz - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
11.11.23	Real Madrid - Valencia	5:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.11.23	Real Madrid - Braga	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.11.23	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	0:0 ✺
28.10.23	Barcelona - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWTW
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
25.11.23	Atalanta - Napoli	1:2 ✺
12.11.23	Napoli - Empoli	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.11.23	Napoli - Union Berlin	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
04.11.23	Salernitana - Napoli	0:2 ✺
29.10.23	Napoli - Milan	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
03.10.23	Napoli - Real Madrid	2:3
07.03.17	Napoli - Real Madrid	1:3
15.02.17	Real Madrid - Napoli	3:1

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