What is the expert prediction for Atalanta vs Napoli?

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Atalanta vs Napoli Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, February 22, 2026)

Match Info

Serie A - Round 26

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: New Balance Arena (Bergamo)

Referee: Chiffi D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 3
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 3
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Astro Premier League 4, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN 3
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	BBC Alba, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 3, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Atalanta		Napoli

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.9	3.25	Watch
	2.52	2.92	3.2	Watch
	2.54	3.15	3.13
	2.49	3.14	3.22	Watch
	2.4	2.9	3.1
	2.57	3.07	3.33
	2.5	3.14	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.35)	3.03 ↓ (3.15)	3.18 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atalanta
38.3%

Draw
31.6%

Napoli
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

30%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

30.2%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	47.1%	17.6%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Atalanta will win (votes: 12 - 35.3%). Napoli will win (votes: 6 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 47.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.3% – 63.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Napoli (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH 0 - Napoli (2.18) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Napoli (1.55) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Napoli (votes: 7 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 4. Hien I. 23. Kolasinac S. 16. Bellanova R. 15. De Roon M. (C) 8. Pasalic M. 77. Zappacosta D. 7. Sulemana K. 59. Zalewski N. 90. Krstovic N.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 31. Beukema S. 5. Juan Jesus 4. Buongiorno A. 30. Mazzocchi P. 68. Lobotka S. (C) 20. Elmas E. 3. Gutierrez M. 27. Alisson Santos 26. Vergara A. 19. Hojlund R.
Substitutes
69. Ahanor H. 5. Bakker M. 47. Bernasconi L. 19. Djimsiti B. 13. Ederson 3. Kossounou O. 6. Musah Y. 31. Rossi F. (G) 10. Samardzic L. 9. Scamacca G. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 45. Vavassori D.	14. Contini N. (G) 98. De Chiara E. 6. Gilmour B. 23. Giovane 9. Lukaku R. 1. Meret A. (G) 17. Olivera M. 21. Politano M. 95. Prisco V. 37. Spinazzola L.
Coaches
Palladino R.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Beukema S. ⚽, Gutierrez M. (A),
37', Juan Jesus 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sulemana K. ↓, Samardzic L. ↑,
57', Bellanova R. ↓, Bernasconi L. ↑,
57', Krstovic N. ↓, Scamacca G. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Pasalic M. ⚽, Zalewski N. (A),
63', Gutierrez M. ↓, Politano M. ↑,
63', Mazzocchi P. ↓, Spinazzola L. ↑,
69', Scalvini G. ↓, Djimsiti B. ↑,
70', Vergara A. ↓, Giovane ↑,
70', Juan Jesus ↓, Olivera M. ↑,
77', Zalewski N. 🟨,
81', 2 - 1, Samardzic L. ⚽, Bernasconi L. (A),
84', Kolasinac S. ↓, Ahanor H. ↑,
85', Alisson Santos ↓, Lukaku R. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 2.

Atalanta is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Napoli has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atalanta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Napoli has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Atalanta: De Ketelaere C. (Knee Injury) Raspadori G. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: David Neres (Ankle Injury) De Bruyne K. (Thigh Injury) Di Lorenzo G. (Knee Injury) McTominay S. (Muscle Injury) Rrahmani A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Anguissa F. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atalanta won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 33:34. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Atalanta won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.7:1.8).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	58:36	22	76
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	51:36	15	59

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Lazio - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
09.02.26	Atalanta - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
05.02.26	Atalanta - Juventus	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
01.02.26	Como - Atalanta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWWWT
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
15.02.26	Napoli - Roma	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
10.02.26	Napoli - Como	1:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
07.02.26	Genoa - Napoli	2:3 ✺
31.01.26	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Napoli - Chelsea	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Napoli - Atalanta	3:1
18.01.25	Atalanta - Napoli	2:3
03.11.24	Napoli - Atalanta	0:3
30.03.24	Napoli - Atalanta	0:3
25.11.23	Atalanta - Napoli	1:2
11.03.23	Napoli - Atalanta	2:0
05.11.22	Atalanta - Napoli	1:2

Atalanta - Napoli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide